The opening weekend of the 2017-18 Premier League season did not disappoint as Arsenal came back to beat Leicester City 4-3 in the final 10 minutes in the very first match of the year, while Burnley upset Chelsea 3-2 and Watford tied Liverpool 3-3.
Week 1 Results:
Home: 4 of 10 (-3.74 units)
Away: 4 of 10 (+10.76 units)
Draw: 2 of 10 (-1.40 units)
Overs: 5 of 10
Unders: 5 of 10
Week 1 Biggest Moneyline Payout:
Burnley (opened +1450, closed +1125) at Chelsea
Burnley’s victory at Chelsea is the second-biggest upset since the beginning of last season based on the closing moneyline (Swansea closed +1200 at Liverpool in Week 23 of 2016-17).
The biggest matchup of Week 2 is Tottenham/Chelsea, but keep in mind that Tottenham are playing their home games at Wembley this season while their new stadium is being constructed. Chelsea will be looking to bounce back after an embarrassing loss to Burnley in the opener, and another loss could put them 6 points behind the top teams after just two matches. Tottenham opened +104 and have drifted to +108. Chelsea opened +294 and have ticked down to +289. There’s also been some small movement on the draw, which opened +262 and is now +254. Less than 10% of tickets has come in on the draw, so there’s some sharp money there. I’d lean to the draw but I think Tottenham are catching Chelsea at a good time, so I’m laying off.
A draw I do like is between West Brom and Burnley at +219 odds. Public bettors are loving Burnley this week based on their big road win last week, but the reality is that they were a bit lucky to get all 3 points against Chelsea. West Brom got a mundane 1-0 home win against Bournemouth last week, and they’re still the superior team to Burnley. With an O/U listed at just 2 goals, this should be a tight affair.
Another play I like as a moneyline parlay of Liverpool/Southampton at +144 odds. Southampton were really unlucky to only get a point at home last week, while Liverpool simply fell flat on their face against Watford in their 3-3 draw. Southampton’s opponent this week, West Ham, are getting over 80% of tickets as big +420 underdogs, so this is a great spot to fade the trendy dog. I think both Southampton and Liverpool get back on track this weekend and take all 3 points.
Most Lopsided: 86% on West Ham United (+420) at Southampton
Biggest Moneyline Moves: Crystal Palace (+923 to +761), Man City (-245 to -315)
Value Plays (0-1, -1 unit): West Brom/Burnley Draw +219, Southampton & Liverpool parlay +144
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