2017 NFL Starting Quarterback Odds

Bookmaker was the first to post odds for the league’s most competitive quarterback battles going into the 2017-18 season. The Bears, Broncos, Browns, Jets and Texans have all been undecided when it comes to who will be their team’s starting quarterback entering Week 1. With the preseason underway, here’s a look at the odds.

Chicago Bears

PLAYER July 24 (Bookmaker)
Mike Glennon -1200
Mitchel Trubisky +700

Denver Broncos 

PLAYER July 31 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker)
Trevor Siemian -210 -360
Paxton Lynch +160 +270

Cleveland Browns

PLAYER Aug 18 (MyBookie) July 27 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker)
Cody Kessler -165 +180 +200
Brock Osweiler +130 +170 +155
DeShone Kizer +700 +190 +205
‘Field’ +800 N/A N/A
Kevin Hogan +1600 N/A N/A

New York Jets

PLAYER Aug 12 (Bookmaker) July 31 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker)
Josh McCown -255 -130 -105
Christian Hackenberg +235 +120 +105
Bryce Petty +2000 +2200 +1800

Houston Texans

PLAYER Aug 12 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker) July 24 open (Bookmaker)
Tom Savage -320 -320 -210
Deshaun Watson +280 +280 +220
Brandon Weeden +4000 +4000 +1500

Below was published July 17

Oddsmakers don’t seem to think the Bears battle will be much of a competition with Glennon opening at the -1200 favorite to earn the job for Chicago. The No.2 overall pick in the draft, Mitchell Trubisky, will need to impress during camp and through the preseason to win the job out of the gate. Trevor Siemian, the victor of last year’s quarterback competition in Denver, finds himself in another battle for the starting gig. He opens as the -360 favorite, but he’ll be competing with second-year quarterback Paxton Lynch to determine who’ll under center for the Broncos in Week 1.

In an unpredictable quarterback battle in Cleveland, Osweiler opens as the +155 favorite, narrowly ahead of Cody Kessler (+200) and DeShone Kizer (+205). The competition in New York will be between McCown (-105) and Hackenberg (+105), with dark horse Bryce Petty opening as the +1800 underdog. In the last quarterback competition we’ll focus on, Tom Savage opened at -210 favorite to start Week 1 for the Texans, but has already moved to -320. Those who are looking forward to watching Deshaun Watson will be disappointed to see his odds have dropped from +220 to +280.

Check back later this offseason for updated odds. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

Super Bowl 52 Odds and Theoretical Hold Percentages

When you want to make a bet at a sportsbook on a team to win the Super Bowl, there are a couple of things that you should know. First is whether or not you are getting the best possible payout that you can. Having multiple sportsbook accounts is something that we always recommend to bettors because by taking a slightly better line, you build up substantial units in the long run.

However, a second thing you should be aware of is a sportsbook’s theoretical hold. When betting on spreads, you can easily see that books are taking money through the juice — usually -110 on a standard spread or total. This helps ensure that they win money in the long run and trust me, they do.

NV sports books win record $14.9 million on baseball in June off record handle of $207.1 million, per state’s Gaming Control Board #RJNow

— Todd Dewey (@tdewey33) July 27, 2017

With futures, it’s tougher to tell just how much the books are taking. In the real world, there is a 100% chance that one team will win the Super Bowl. In the gambling world, a sportsbook’s Super Bowl futures and corresponding implied probabilities suggest that there is more than a 100% chance. The higher the percentage, the higher the hold and the lower the payouts.

To find a sportsbook’s theoretical hold percentage, you must first look at the odds for each team and convert them into implied probability by using this formula: (100/(100+odds). For example, a team with +500 odds would have a 16.67% implied probability (100/(100+500). Once we have the IP for every team, we can add them all together to get X. Then to get the hold, we finally finish up with the math by doing: 1-(1/X).

Oh, that’s right, people hate math! That’s why I have gone ahead and done it for you like the nice feller that I am. You can venmo me part of your winnings as a thank you.

For this exercise, we will be looking at nine different offshore sportsbooks (varying from sharp to square) and one Vegas book, the Westgate Superbook. I would have liked to include 5Dimes and Bovada in the sample, but 5Dimes has no odds for the Cowboys and Bovada doesn’t have any Super Bowl odds posted currently.

TEAM BOOKMKR IP PINNACLE IP BETONLINE IP BetUS IP MyBookie IP HERITAGE IP PADDYPOWER IP SPORTSBOOK IP GREEK IP WESTGATE IP
NE 303 24.81% 391 20.37% 275 26.67% 350 22.22% 400 20.00% 365 21.51% 400 20.00% 320 23.81% 300 25.00% 250 28.57%
GB 983 9.23% 951 9.51% 950 9.52% 900 10.00% 800 11.11% 950 9.52% 1000 9.09% 1100 8.33% 800 11.11% 800 11.11%
SEA 935 9.66% 966 9.38% 950 9.52% 900 10.00% 750 11.76% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09%
PIT 845 10.58% 1013 8.98% 1100 8.33% 1000 9.09% 900 10.00% 1050 8.70% 1100 8.33% 1300 7.14% 800 11.11% 1200 7.69%
DAL 1400 6.67% 1095 8.37% 1100 8.33% 1200 7.69% 750 11.76% 1150 8.00% 1400 6.67% 1700 5.56% 1200 7.69% 1200 7.69%
ATL 1022 8.91% 1200 7.69% 1100 8.33% 1300 7.14% 1100 8.33% 1400 6.67% 1200 7.69% 1300 7.14% 1500 6.25% 1200 7.69%
OAK 1451 6.45% 1752 5.40% 1200 7.69% 1800 5.26% 1500 6.25% 1675 5.63% 1800 5.26% 1600 5.88% 1200 7.69% 800 11.11%
NYG 1750 5.41% 2641 3.65% 1400 6.67% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 1700 5.56% 1800 5.26% 1800 5.26%
KC 2352 4.08% 2661 3.62% 2500 3.85% 1800 5.26% 1500 6.25% 2500 3.85% 2000 4.76% 3200 3.03% 2500 3.85% 3000 3.23%
HOU 2403 4.00% 2125 4.49% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 1800 5.26% 2850 3.39% 3300 2.94% 3000 3.23% 2800 3.45% 4000 2.44%
CAR 3004 3.22% 3090 3.13% 2800 3.45% 2400 4.00% 1800 5.26% 3250 2.99% 2500 3.85% 3000 3.23% 1800 5.26% 2500 3.85%
DEN 3707 2.63% 3192 3.04% 2800 3.45% 1600 5.88% 1300 7.14% 3325 2.92% 2000 4.76% 4000 2.44% 3000 3.23% 4000 2.44%
IND 6500 1.52% 4568 2.14% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 3500 2.78% 3300 2.94% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96% 5000 1.96%
MIN 3799 2.56% 3749 2.60% 3600 2.70% 2400 4.00% 2000 4.76% 3525 2.76% 2500 3.85% 4500 2.17% 3500 2.78% 4000 2.44%
TB 3813 2.56% 4311 2.27% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 3800 2.56% 3300 2.94% 3000 3.23% 2500 3.85% 4000 2.44%
ARI 4200 2.33% 3476 2.80% 3300 2.94% 2400 4.00% 1600 5.88% 4200 2.33% 2500 3.85% 3500 2.78% 3000 3.23% 2500 3.85%
TEN 3756 2.59% 3384 2.87% 3300 2.94% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 4500 2.17% 3300 2.94% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3000 3.23%
BAL 7200 1.37% 4575 2.14% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 2800 3.45% 4700 2.08% 3300 2.94% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44%
PHI 3619 2.69% 4682 2.09% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44%
LAC 5600 1.75% 4782 2.05% 4500 2.17% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 5350 1.83% 4000 2.44% 5000 1.96% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96%
NO 5500 1.79% 6254 1.57% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 5700 1.72% 4000 2.44% 5000 1.96% 4500 2.17% 5000 1.96%
DET 6300 1.56% 5754 1.71% 5000 1.96% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 7000 1.41% 6000 1.64% 6000 1.64%
CIN 7500 1.32% 6678 1.48% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 6525 1.51% 3300 2.94% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 6000 1.64%
WAS 6700 1.47% 8121 1.22% 6600 1.49% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 7500 1.32% 5000 1.96% 7000 1.41% 5000 1.96% 8000 1.23%
MIA 6500 1.52% 7226 1.37% 6600 1.49% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 8400 1.18% 4000 2.44% 7500 1.32% 7500 1.32% 8000 1.23%
JAX 9000 1.10% 6067 1.62% 6600 1.49% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 9000 1.10% 6600 1.49% 8000 1.23% 8000 1.23% 8000 1.23%
BUF 16000 0.62% 11550 0.86% 10000 0.99% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 17500 0.57% 7500 1.32% 20000 0.50% 15000 0.66% 8000 1.23%
CHI 16500 0.60% 19456 0.51% 17500 0.57% 10000 0.99% 8000 1.23% 20000 0.50% 10000 0.99% 15000 0.66% 20000 0.50% 10000 0.99%
LAR 17000 0.58% 17466 0.57% 17500 0.57% 10000 0.99% 8000 1.23% 25000 0.40% 12500 0.79% 20000 0.50% 12500 0.79% 8000 1.23%
CLE 24000 0.41% 26649 0.37% 25000 0.40% 15000 0.66% 10000 0.99% 30000 0.33% 20000 0.50% 25000 0.40% 30000 0.33% 30000 0.33%
SF 18500 0.54% 43190 0.23% 30000 0.33% 13000 0.76% 10000 0.99% 40000 0.25% 10000 0.99% 25000 0.40% 35000 0.28% 20000 0.50%
NYJ 35000 0.28% 27603 0.36% 50000 0.20% 13000 0.76% 8000 1.23% 40000 0.25% 20000 0.50% 32500 0.31% 35000 0.28% 50000 0.20%

*Odds accurate as of 8/17/17

Hold Percentages

  • Sportsbook: 12.44%
  • Heritage: 13.98%
  • Pinnacle: 15.58%
  • Bookmaker: 19.88%
  • Paddy Power: 23.28%
  • Greek: 24.54%
  • BetOnline: 25.45%
  • Westgate: 25.57%
  • BetUS: 26.27%
  • MyBookie: 36.51%

Sportsbook has experienced payout delays recently, but they do have the best hold percentage on the market. However, they could be posting enticing odds to attract new customers.

The three books following them are the three sharpest books in the sample, all of which have great reputations according to sportsbook review sites. Westgate comes in on the higher side, but that should be expected for a Vegas book as they have been known to have holds pushing 50%.

MyBookie…I love the prop bets this book puts out, but golly gee whiz their Super Bowl odds suck. Oddly enough, they have the best payout for the Patriots, but the worst odds for many of the other teams.

Keep in mind that these are the hold percentages for these particular Super Bowl odds, not for every future the book posts. Last year, the books came in a similar order, but the percentages were relatively different. We did a similar exercise for the World Series this year, which yielded very interesting results comparatively speaking. Heritage, nearly the best book for each of the past two Super Bowls, was tied for dead last at 30.69%! These clearly vary from year-to-year and sport-to-sport. I am guessing many of these percentages are worse than last year’s due to the Patriots’ historically great odds.

If you have a particular team in mind, here is where you can find the best payout for each. Quick! Go get those Jets at 500/1 at BetOnline before the line moves!

Best Odds Per team

  • Arizona: +4200 (Bookmaker & Heritage)
  • Atlanta: +1500 (Greek)
  • Baltimore: +7200 (Bookmaker)
  • Buffalo: +20000 (Sportsbook)
  • Carolina: +3250 (Heritage)
  • Chicago: +20000 (Heritage & Greek)
  • Cincinnati: +7500 (Bookmaker)
  • Cleveland: +30000 (Heritage, Greek, & Westgate)
  • Dallas: +1700 (Sportsbook)
  • Denver: +4000 (Sportsbook & Westgate)
  • Detroit: +7000 (Sportsbook)
  • Green Bay: +1100 (Sportsbook)
  • Houston: +4000 (Westgate)
  • Indianapolis: +6500 (Bookmaker & Sportsbook)
  • Jacksonville: +9000 (Bookmaker & Heritage)
  • Kansas City: +3200 (Sportsbook)
  • LA Chargers: +660 (BetUS)
  • LA Rams: +25000 (Heritage)
  • Miami: +8400 (Heritage)
  • Minnesota: +4500 (Sportsbook)
  • New England: +400 (MyBookie & Paddy Power)
  • New Orleans: +5700 (Heritage)
  • NY Giants: +2641 (Pinnacle)
  • NY Jets: +50000 (BetOnline & Westgate)
  • Oakland: +1800 (BetUS & Paddy Power)
  • Philadelphia: +5000 (Heritage)
  • Pittsburgh: +1300 (Sportsbook)
  • San Francisco: +43190 (Pinnacle)
  • Seattle: +1000 (Heritage, Paddy Power, Sportsbook, Greek, & Westgate)
  • Tampa Bay: +4311 (Pinnacle)
  • Tennessee: +5000 (BetUS)
  • Washington: +8000 (Westgate)

Best Team Odds per Book

  • Heritage: 10
  • Sportsbook: 10
  • Westgate: 6
  • Bookmaker: 5
  • Greek: 4
  • BetUS: 3
  • Paddy Power: 3
  • Pinnacle: 3
  • BetUS: 2
  • BetOnline: 1

These generally line up with the hold percentage rankings, but there are some differences. Despite having one of the best holds, Pinnacle only offers three of the best payouts — one of which is the 49ers. Meanwhile, Westgate has one of the worst holds but several of the best payouts. Seahawks fans heading to Vegas might want to head over to the Superbook and put down some money.

If you’re wondering how preseason odds have translated into Super Bowl champions, here are the preseason odds for each team dating back to Super Bowl 36.

Super Bowl Team Preseason Odds
51 New England Patriots +600
50 Denver Broncos +900
49 New England Patriots +650
48 Seattle Seahawks +800
47 Baltimore Ravens +1800
46 New York Giants +2200
45 Green Bay Packers +1100
44 New Orleans Saints +2000
43 Pittsburgh Steelers +1800
42 New York Giants +3000
41 Indianapolis Colts +600
40 Pittsburgh Steelers +1200
39 New England Patriots +600
38 New England Patriots +1500
37 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200
36 New England Patriots +6000

Historical Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com

Will the Patriots win another Super Bowl and make this post a waste of time? I wouldn’t really mind since I’m a Pats fan…

If you’ve missed our first three summer series articles, make sure you check them out.

The Difference Between Sports Bettors and Sports Investors

Who are the Best and Worst Backup Quarterbacks in the League?

Turf, Temps, and Tornadoes: What to Look for When Betting NFL Totals

Follow us on Twitter @SportsInsights so you stay up to date on all of our blogs.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

Fantasy News: Adrian Peterson Nonsense

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Fantasy Football People! What’s going on? More and more Fantasy
Football analysts are talking up the Minnesota Vikings offense as a
place to go for Fantasy Football production in 2017. Sounds weird
considering they were in the bottom half of the league in points
scored in 2016. With further investigation, it looks as if it’s
safe to say they maybe on to something. The Vikings took steps to
improve their offensive line in the offseason. Their second round
draft pick, Dalvin Cook, will be a Fantasy Football stud. Healthy
seasons from Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen can make both WRs Top 30
Fantasy Football producers at the receiver position. Kyle Rudolph
finally showed up last season, putting up TE 1 numbers. So, I get
it. The Vikings will be better offensively.

With all these good things happening for the Vikings’ offense,
guess who has been the talk of OTAs and Mini Camp? That stiff,
Laquon Treadwell. The rookie could barely get on the field last
season due to foot and ankle injuries. Well, so far this offseason
things have changed. Treadwell is taking first team reps in three
receiver sets and looks more comfortable in the offense. It will be
interesting to see if this talk keeps up when they put on the pads.
Fantasy Football owners drafting right now can put a dollar on
Treadwell extremely late in the draft. I have done so myself in a
few leagues.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

Outlook for Titans’ Corey Davis

Titans first round draft pick Corey Davis is a real deal WR1.
Fantasy Football owners will love Davis for many years to come.
Tennessee selected Davis with the fifth overall pick of the 2017
NFL Draft
. Davis is a 6’3″ 209-pound freak who dominated the
college football ranks. Dynasty Fantasy Football league owners will
have to pick him very early in rookie drafts based on his college
production and pro potential. Davis’ detractors will say that he
did not play in a college football power conference. His numbers at
Western Michigan are nothing to take lightly, so please don’t
sleep, Son. Davis had three seasons with over 1,400 yards receiving
and he also put up two seasons with 90 plus receptions. Last season
Davis scored 19 touchdowns. He scored a remarkable 52 touchdowns in
his four year college career. This season in Tennessee, he will
join a much-improved receiving corps over what the Titans had last
season. Rishard Matthews was a Fantasy Football difference-maker
last season. Matthews and Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota had a
nice chemistry last season. The Titans scooped up Jets wide
receiver Eric Decker in the offseason. Before you make the mistake
of thinking Decker can be this team’s number one wideout, make sure
you check his profile in the Inside Injuries app. Yeah, it’s like
that. Delanie Walker could very well remain this team’s top option
in the passing game.

I believe Davis’ talent will win out and the rookie will be the
go-getter for Mariota. It’s much like I’m the go-getter for the
Fantasy Sports Network (FNTSY). A pair of Coreys will be getting it
done this year. The Titans will continue to be a run-first team, I
get it, but I want this type of talent on my Fantasy Football
roster. This year! Davis is going off the board as wide receiver 45
in National Fantasy Football Championship leagues. I love Davis as
a WR4 on Fantasy Football teams. If I love it, you should also.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

Fantasy Decisions: Packers’ Randall Cobb vs. Eagles’ Jordan Matthews

NFL Fantasy Football

This was a tough one to break down for you Fantasy Football
owners. Let’s start in Philadelphia with Jordan Matthews. Matthews
had career lows in receiving yards and touchdowns in 2016. The
Eagles’ entire passing game was pretty trashy in 2016. Fantasy
Football owners already know Nelson Agholor is a bum and Dorial
Green-Beckham, who they got rid of, was trash also. Carson Wentz
looked good at times in his rookie season, but Jordan Matthews was
his only wide receiver who belonged in the National Football
League. This season, though, Wentz and Matthews will have true
NFL-caliber talent around them. The Eagles went out and scooped up
Torrey Smith and Alshon Jeffrey in the offseason. Matthews will now
have someone beside Zach Ertz to take away attention from him. Not
to mention Matthews is already familiar with Wentz and the
offensive scheme. Smith and Jeffrey will have to get there
throughout training camp and the preseason.

Fantasy Football owners who rostered Randall Cobb in 2016 will
likely not own him again this year. Cobb was a bust last season but
I think most of that was due to injury. Davante Adams likely played
a role also. Cobb spent most of the 2016 season banged up, but when
he was healthy in the playoffs he put up two very nice games. In
National Fantasy Football Championship leagues Cobb is currently
going off the board as wide receiver 40 while Matthews is 46.
Fantasy Football owners are a trip, I tell you. Receivers like John
Brown, Eric Decker, and DeVante Parker should not be going ahead of
these guys. Matthews is currently dealing with a knee injury but
should be ready to go for training camp. Check out the video and
see which one I select but this is a tough call. The good news is
both players will return value on their current ADPs.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

Fantasy Decisions: Vikings’ Dalvin Cook vs. Seahawks’ Eddie Lacy

NFL Fantasy Football

In this installment of Fantasy Football Decisions, we
break down and compare Vikings rookie running back Dalvin Cook and
Seahawks offseason addition Eddie Lacy. Cook, a second round draft
pick out of Florida State University, is a player some have
compared to Fantasy Football legend Jamaal Charles. Last season as
a Seminole, Cook had well over 2,000 yards of total offense. Cook
ran for more than six yards per carry and his receptions averaged
over 14 yards. Cook is one of the top running backs in this rookie
class. He is right up there with Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, and
Christian McCaffrey. Cook would have likely been a first round pick
if it wasn’t for a poor combine and off-field issues from years
ago. Although Latavius Murray signed with the Vikings in the
offseason, expect Cook to be the alpha male in the Minnesota
running game from Week 1 and the guy you want for Fantasy Football
purposes.

Eddie Lacy and Fantasy Football owners have issues they need to
work on. Lacy’s final two seasons in Green Bay were filled with
injuries and struggles with his weight. Lacy will have a chance to
redeem himself this season in Seattle. Thomas Rawls will not be
able to keep Lacy out of the starting lineup. Second-year back C.J.
Prosise has talent but is more of a third-down guy. Lacy will once
again have an opportunity to prove it on the field. The problem
with Lacy in recent years is staying on the field and getting a
full complement of touches. In drafts so far this season, Cook is
going off the board around running back 20. Those are lofty
expectations for the rookie from Liberty City, Miami. Lacy, on the
other hand, has a NFFC ADP of 78 overall and is the 29th running
back going off draft boards. Is Lacy and steal and the unproven
Cook a reach? Find out in Executive Decisions.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

Fantasy Football Draft Spotlight: Raiders’ Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks’ Eddie Lacy

MARSHAWN LYNCH TO THE OAKLAND RAIDERS

Marshawn Lynch is one of the most entertaining running backs in NFL history both on and off the field. This offseason, he surprised the Fantasy Sports world once again when he came out of retirement to join his hometown Oakland Raiders. Now 31 years old, there are a ton of questions regarding his health and physical condition.

There’s no denying that from 2011-2014, Lynch was one of the most consistent running backs in Fantasy Football, regardless of format (see below). The problem is the last time we saw Lynch was the 2015 season, when he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, while battling hamstring and abdomen injuries. Perhaps a year off did his body well. We saw an older Adrian Peterson return to football after missing nearly an entire season. In 2015, at 30 years old, AP rushed 327 times for 1,485 yards and 11 TDs. It’s not impossible.

 

Marshawn Lynch
Standard PPR Offensive line run-block rating
2011 RB5 RB6 19th
2012 RB4 RB5 4th
2013 RB4 RB5 9th
2014 RB3 RB4 4th

*Offensive line ratings provided by Football Outsiders

 

We’ll know more about Lynch’s physical health once we see him in pads during the preseason. For now, let’s focus on how he fits in with the Raiders. First up is the offensive line. The Raiders have one of the best in the entire NFL, albeit much better in pass protection. According to Football Outsiders, their line ranked first in pass protection and 11th in run blocking. Regardless, it’s a strong unit with everybody from 2016 still intact.

As a team, the Raiders had the 11th most rushing attempts in 2016 with 434, which bodes well for Lynch. What does not bode well is the fact that the Raiders used a committee approach. They were one of only two teams last season that had three different running backs with at least 83 carries. Jalen Richard had 83, DeAndre Washington had 87, and Latavius Murray had 195. Given Lynch’s age and the Raiders’ willingness to keep fresh legs on the field, I’d bet on similar usage again in 2017.

Obviously, Lynch takes over the role Murray left behind. That’s the good news. Murray finished as RB13 in both standard and PPR formats last season despite just 195 carries. In fact, his 195 carries were the lowest of any running back who finished inside the Top 15 in either format. Murray’s 12 rushing touchdowns ranked fifth in the NFL and that’s the reason he was so valuable.

Marshawn Lynch has created significant Fantasy buzz in his return from retirement. (Photo by Samuel Stringer/Icon Sportswire)

I mentioned the Raiders used a committee approach, but when they get into the red zone, this will be Lynch’s job. Murray had 38 carries inside the red zone, tied for ninth in 2016. Furthermore, he had 25 carries inside the 10, tied for seventh among running backs, and that’s where he scored 11 of his 12 touchdowns. Washington and Richard could see a series here or there outside the 20s, but when it’s crunch time in the red zone, Lynch will be used the same way Murray was last season.

There are question marks when drafting Lynch and that’s fair. It will be interesting to see his where he stands physically come preseason, but even an 80 percent, Lynch is better than Murray. It’s not a knock on Murray but rather high praise for Lynch’s talent. Lynch is currently being drafted as RB17 at pick 48.8 in NFFC ADP. He should be targeted as a RB2 in Round 4 in either format because of his touchdown upside in a potent offense. If he turns out to be the Lynch of old, Fantasy owners could be looking at a Top 10 back. There’s also a chance he should have stayed retired. That is what makes him a somewhat risky pick.

EDDIE LACY TO THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

 I’ll spare you the fat jokes, but it is no secret Eddie Lacy had issues with his conditioning. At his latest weigh-in, Lacy needed to be less than 250 pounds to earn another incentive, which he did. It was his second of seven weigh-ins, each earning him $55,000 if he meets the target weight. The plan is for Lacy to clock in at 245 pounds for the start of the regular season. Still just 26 years old, I think we all know Lacy can play. It’s just a matter of how motivated he is.

Last season was a train wreck for the former Packer but there was still one major positive. He averaged a career-high 5.1 yards per carry, albeit in a small sample size (just 71 rushing attempts). Given his size and strength, he’s always been able to absorb some contact and was very useful on or near the goal line. As a rookie, Lacy scored all 11 of his rushing touchdowns from within the red zone with 10 of those coming from inside the 10. In his sophomore season, he scored eight of nine from inside the red zone. The last few seasons, the Packers got away from using Lacy in that area of the field. That’s why his Fantasy production suffered.

If Lacy is going to score touchdowns this season, the Seahawks’ offensive line has no choice but to be better. In 2016, the line ranked 26th in run blocking. Seahawks running backs were tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage third-most in the league. In an effort to improve, the team signed Luke Joeckel and Oday Aboushi, adding two more in the draft. The team has just $15.59 million invested in their offensive line, the lowest total in the NFL. This isn’t uncommon for the Seahawks, as they usually draft linemen and develop from within the organization. On paper, this unit should be better in 2017, the question is how much better.

Along with the offensive line woes, Lacy has to fight off both Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise for carries. The Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta revealed his hypothesis that Rawls and Lacy will take a fairly equal share of the base down carries. Uh oh. That’s the last thing any Fantasy owner wants to hear. In Lacy’s defense, Rawls averaged just 3.2 yards per carry last season. As mentioned, the offensive line was horrendous, but Christine Michael still averaged 4.0 YPC and Prosise averaged 5.7. Obviously, whoever produces early on should see more of the workload, and if Lacy can approach his career 4.4 YPC, the job should be his.

Just last year, Michael and Rawls combined for 818 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on 226 carries. That number assigned to a singular player would have finished as a Top-24 running back in Fantasy last season. Here at RotoExperts, we have Lacy projected for 1,077 total yards and seven touchdowns, which would rank as RB20 in standard and RB28 in PPR. Lacy is much more valuable in standard leagues because he will be touchdown dependent and Prosise will be the pass-catching back. If Lacy is motivated and runs hard, he could flirt with a 1,000-yard season and double-digit touchdowns. If not, he could be off the Seahawks roster by midseason. It’s a risky pick, but one worth taking as your RB3 or flex at his current NFFC ADP of 77.1.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

Fantasy Football 2017 ADP Duel: Dolphins’ Jarvis Landry vs. Packers’ Davante Adams

Jarvis Landry and Davante Adams both will be drafted as WR2s, but who will be the better player for your team? To answer that question, you first have to consider whether you are in a PPR format or a standard league. One player is very touchdown dependent (Adams), while the other is consistent week in and week out for receptions (Landry). With both of these players ADPs being so close according to FantasyPros.com, you will likely be put in a position to choose between the two. So, lets dive into the details to find out which you should go with come draft day.

Will Davante Adams regress from his 12 touchdowns in 2016, or will he continue to climb the rankings? (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Jarvis Landry: ADP 40

Jarvis Landry turned in yet another fantastic year in PPR scoring in 2016 with 94 receptions for 1,134 yards. But what has become a trend for Landry is that he only hauled in four touchdowns. In fact, he had more drops (five) than he did trips to the end-zone last season. Over his last three seasons, Landry has a combined 13 TDs, making him less and less attractive to owners in standard formats. His three-year average of 96 catches, on the other hand, makes him a top target in PPR formats. His percentage of targets caught (77.%) and run after catch (6.7) numbers are among the league’s best, showing that he is one of the most sure-handed players in the game.

Coming into the 2017 season, however, there seems to be an emphasis by the coaching staff to become more balanced on offense. That means that they will be looking to get Jay Ajayi even more involved this season. So, what does this mean for Landry? Well, it could mean that his target share will dip, as well as the catches and yardage overall. And for a player that relies on yards after the catch, that will really put a dent into his Fantasy potential. Don’t get me wrong, this passing attack will continue to go through Landry as the WR1, but the dip in production hurts his appeal as a PPR standout while also making him a player that you can overlook in standard formats. I currently have him projected for 87 catches and 1,013 yards with only five TDs. That would make Landry a solid WR2 in PPR formats, but could put him as a fringe WR2/3 in standard leagues. Landry could be a prime candidate for regression in 2017.

Davante Adams: ADP 42

The 2016 Davante Adams is what many owners thought that they were getting early in 2015 drafts. The hype was so big that it felt like the pressure was too big for him to hold. After being a massive flop, Adams came into last season fresh,and rebounded in a big way with 75 grabs for 997 yards and a jaw-dropping 12 TDs. He was constantly targeted in the red zone by Aaron Rodgers, and unlike in 2015, he was actually converting. And to think, he could have been even better. His nine drops were tied for fourth in the league with several of them being in or around the end zone. All of his counting stats such as yards per reception (13.3) and RAC (5.4) were all middle of the road, showing just how dependent he was on the touchdown for his Fantasy potential.

As we enter into the 2017 season, Adams is solidly the Packers WR2 ahead of the fading Randall Cobb. That means his target share should increase in what will be a contract year for the receiver. We all know what that generally means for Fantasy production. This Packers offense should again be very pass-reliant with the lack of a true running back to stand out (I don’t believe that Ty Montgomery is the answer). Even with the extra mouths to feed in the offense with Jordy Nelson, Cobb, and the newly signed Martellus Bennett, there will be plenty of opportunity for Adams to show his worth. He should again be a highly sought-after piece in standard formats, where his ADP will be higher, but expect Adams to have a better season in PPR leagues than he did last year. I currently have him projected for 81 catches for 1,001 yards and eight TDs. Adams will be drafted as a WR2, but has all the potential to put up WR1 numbers in 2017.

Verdict:

While both of these players will be great producers for Fantasy in 2017, if I am presented with the option on either player, I am going with Davante Adams every time. I see Landry taking a step back this year, and without the touchdown production, it makes him a dangerous player to own in any format. Adams, on the other hand, should see an increase in catches and yards while keeping the touchdown potential. Grabbing a possible WR1 for a WR2 price? I am in on that all day long. Give me Davante Adams for 2017.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More