Odds to make the 2017-18 College Football Playoff

Odds to make the 2017-18 College Football Playoff were released at 5Dimes back in June and Alabama (-195) was the only odds-on favorite to make it. Since then, we’ve updated the odds for each team to make and miss the 4-team playoff.

School Make Playoff
(Aug 19)
Miss Playoff
(Aug 19)
Make Playoff
(June 17)
Miss Playoff
(June 17)
Alabama -195 +155 -195 +155
Ohio State +140 -180 +160 -210
USC +145 -185 +140 -180
Florida State +150 -190 +145 -185
Oklahoma +250 -350 +250 -350
Washington +425 -675 +425 -675
Penn State +450 -750 +450 -750
LSU +450 -750 +450 -750
Michigan +500 -900 +500 -900
Auburn +500 -900 +600 -1200
Clemson +700 -1500 +600 -1200
Wisconsin +725 -1545 +700 -1500
Oklahoma State +800 -1700 +700 -1500
Georgia +825 -1725 +825 -1725
Texas +850 -1750 +850 -1750
Florida +850 -1750 +825 -1725
Louisville +1000 -2000 +1000 -2000
Miami Florida +1200 -2600 +1100 -2300
Notre Dame +1300 -3000 +1300 -3000
Virginia Tech +1400 -3600 +1500 -4500
Tennessee +1500 -4500 +1400 -3600
Stanford +1600 -4800 +1600 -4800
Kansas State +1600 -4800 +1200 -2600
TCU +1700 -5100 +1350 -3250
Oregon +1700 -5100 +1700 -5100
UCLA +1800 -5400 +1800 -5400
Washington State +1900 -5700 +1700 -5100
South Florida +3000 -11000 +4000 -16000
NC State +3700 -14100 +3000 -11000
BYU +3700 -14100 +3000 -11000
Texas A&M +3700 -14100 +3100 -11300
Nebraska +3700 -14100 +3000 -11000
Utah +5500 -21500 +3400 -12800
Colorado +6000 -24000 +3300 -12100
Northwestern +6000 -24000 +3500 -13500
Iowa +6000 -24000 +4300 -16900
Arkansas +7000 -30000 +6000 -24000
West Virginia +7000 -30000 +2300 -6900
Minnesota +8000 -35000 +4500 -17500
Arizona State +8000 -35000 +7000 -30000
Mississippi State +8000 -35000 +7000 -30000
Baylor +8000 -35000 +3300 -12100
Michigan State +8000 -35000 N/A N/A
North Carolina +8500 -37500 +6000 -24000
Pittsburgh +8500 -37500 +4000 -16000
Georgia Tech +10000 -50000 +4000 -16000
Boise State +10000 -50000 +4500 -17500
South Carolina +13500 -67500 +9000 -41000
Indiana +15000 -75000 +12500 -62500
Duke +15000 -75000 +9500 -45500

If we expect all the favorites to make the 2017-18 playoff, it’ll be Alabama vs. Florida State, and Ohio State vs. USC.

Last year we saw Alabama (+125), Ohio State (+195), Clemson (+195) and Washington (+500) make the 4-team playoff. In the National Championship, Clemson upset Alabama 35-31 in an epic game. Oklahoma (+175) was the only one of the “favorites” not to make the 4-team playoff.

5Dimes also has a few variations of prop bets available for the 2017-18 playoff:

Will the playoff be the 4 favorites of Alabama, Florida State, USC and Ohio State?
Yes +1200, No -2250

Will a team with 2 or more losses be selected for the playoff?
Yes +170, No -230

Will a single conference get 2 or more teams in the playoff?
Yes +260, No -380

Check out current odds, opening lines and betting percentages for all Week 1 games.

Win Totals for 130 schools

Conference Previews: ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC

Heisman Trophy Odds

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Georgia Tech Dismisses Star RB Dedrick Mills

On Friday (8/18) afternoon, news broke that Georgia Tech RB Dedrick Mills had been dismissed due to a violation of team rules.

#NCAAF #GaTech – Dedrick Mills, Disciplinary – has been dismissed

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) August 18, 2017

Mills was an integral part of the Yellow Jackets offense last season, leading the team with 771 rushing yards on 152 carries while adding 13 total touchdowns. Georgia Tech has been a rush-heavy offense over the last several years, so his absence will be missed.

Prior to his dismissal, Georgia Tech was listed at +3 or +3.5 around the market for Week 1 vs. Tennessee. Since news of his dismissal, some sportsbooks like 5Dimes and Bet365 have moved Georgia Tech to +4. With roughly 60% of early tickets taking the Volunteers already, we could see the line move to +4.5 or +5 over the weekend.

Here’s a look at Georgia Tech’s futures at 5Dimes:
Win Total 6.5 (o-115)
To win ACC Championship +4500
To make 4-Team Playoff +10000
To win National Championship +70000

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2017 SEC Football Betting Preview

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama has dominated the SEC for the past three years, winning three straight conference championships and representing the conference in the College Football Playoff in each of its three years of existence. It should come as no surprise that Nick Saban’s squad is expected to continue their dominance in 2017.

The Tide are coming off a difficult National Championship defeat to Clemson, but should not have a problem returning to the Natty this year. They’re returning nearly every offensive starter, including three potential Heisman candidates. Their expectations are so high in fact, that 5Dimes has released some preseason odds that have never existed for a college football team. Bama is +2000 to win each game this season by 10+ points, and +2000 to go undefeated in both of the next two seasons. You can see all of their ridiculous props here.

As for the rest of the conference, it’s essentially a battle for second according to oddsmakers.

2017 Futures

Team Win SEC
(8/15 5Dimes)
Make/Miss CFP
(8/15 5Dimes)
Win National Championship
(8/12 5Dimes)
Win Total
(8/15 5Dimes)
Alabama -153 -195/+155 +245 11 (u-120)
Auburn +685 +500/-900 +2000 8.5 (o-155)
LSU +800 +450/-750 +2000 9 (o-115)
Florida +1000 +850/-1750 +4000 8 (o-160)
Georgia +1000 +825/-1725 +3500 8.5 (o-135)
Tennessee +2600 +1500/-4500 +10300 7.5 (o-115)
Arkansas +7500 +7000/-30000 +50000 7 (u-140)
Texas A&M +5500 +3700/-14100 +22500 7
Kentucky +12000 N/A +150000 7 (u-150)
Mississippi State +12000 +8000/-35000 +60000 5.5 (o-145)
South Carolina +13000 +13500/-67500 +95000 5.5 (o-125)
Missouri +25000 N/A +120000 6.5 (u-140)
Vanderbilt +25000 N/A +150000 6 (u-175)
Ole Miss N/A* N/A* N/A* 5.5 (u-105)

*self-imposed one-year postseason ban

Behind Alabama’s -153 conference odds (the only team in the country with minus odds), Auburn (+685) has been given the best shot, followed by LSU at +800. Interestingly, all three mentioned teams are in the SEC West. Obviously, the West has been the superior division in recent history, but in general, when a conference has such a juggernaut as Bama, the next team or two in terms of conference odds tends to come from the other division (see Wisconsin in the Big Ten, Washington in the Pac-12). The reason being that the winner of each division gets to play for the championship, so it’s more doable to win one game vs. the juggernaut than to outperform them for an entire season.

For those now thinking that there’s inherently some value on an SEC East team like Florida or Georgia (both at +1000), I should warn you that even after Florida won the East last year (with +1500 preseason odds to win the SEC), the closing line of the SEC Championship was +1100/-2100.

Back to the West. After bringing in quarterback Jarrett Stidham (sophomore transfer from Baylor), Auburn is potentially strong enough to compete with any team in the country, including Alabama (the Tigers will be hosting the Iron Bowl this year). They’ll be returning 15 starters, including running back Kamryn Pettway, and have a defense that allowed the fifth fewest points per game in 2016 (15.6). The question mark therefore is on Stidham, and with a week 2 matchup at Clemson, it won’t take long to get an idea of what kind of team this is going to be in 2017.

LSU is another team with high expectations heading into 2017. They’ve got plenty talent at running back despite losing Leonard Fournette to the NFL Draft. Derrius Guice was extremely impressive in 2016 averaging 7.6 yards per carry, and figures to be in the Heisman conversation this season. The defense was just behind Auburn’s in 2016, allowing 16.4 points per game, sixth in the country. Unfortunately, they’re losing half their starters, and have road matchups with Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee. It would surprise me to see them ultimately making a run at a conference championship, but it is college football. Crazier things have happened.

As mentioned, Florida and Georgia both have +1000 odds to win the conference. Georgia’s struggling offense will benefit from the healthy return of running back Nick Chubb, but there’s still questions at receiver and offensive line. QB Jacob Eason is entering his second year as starter, which is usually a sign for overall team improvement, and their 16th ranked defense is retunrning 10 starters.

Last year’s East champs, the Gators, are still waiting on a starting quarterback to emerge from their ongoing QB battle. Earlier this offseason it looked as if Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire was going to be their guy, but redshirt freshman Felipe Franks has made his own case, leaving head coach Jim McElwain still up in the air on a decision.

If you’re looking to take one of these teams to win the SEC, I’d take a lesson from last year and wait to see how things play out. As we saw in 2016, there isn’t much value gained from placing a preseason bet on an East team to take the conference from Bama.

2016 Results

Team ATS Moneyline Units (Record) Over Record
Auburn 9-3 -0.9 (6-4) 4-8
Alabama 9-4 1.6 (12-0) 6-7
Vanderbilt 7-5 7.5 (6-6) 5-6
Kentucky 7-5 18.5 (6-5) 7-5
LSU 5-6 -2.5 (6-4) 2-7-2
South Carolina 5-6-1 3.2 (5-6)
Tennessee 5-7 -2.3 (7-4) 8-4
Mississippi State 5-7 -0.5 (5-7) 7-5
Georgia 5-7 -0.1 (6-5) 5-7
Missouri 5-7 -4.8 (3-8) 6-6
Arkansas 5-7 +4.2 (6-5) 6-6
Florida 4-7-1 1.5 (6-4) 4-8
Texas A&M 4-8 -1.6 (6-4) 4-7
Ole Miss 4-8 -4.4 (4-7) 7-4

Alabama and Auburn aside, it was a tough year for spread bettors in the SEC. Ten of the 14 teams in the conference ended the season with below .500 ATS records. The SEC’s reputation likely drew more casual bettors to their teams, and created value on the opposing side. In fact, simply fading SEC teams on the moneyline rewarded bettors with 13.6 units in 2016-17.

As for Kentucky, however, moneyline bettors saw the balance on their betting accounts skyrocket, thanks in large part to a huge road upset at Louisville (closed over +1700), as well as big wins at Missouri and vs. Mississippt State. The Wildcats were the most profitable moneyline team in the Power 5, ending the year up 18.5 units.

As we’ve seen with some of the other dominant teams of 2016 (Clemson and Ohio State), there’s little to no value betting a team like Alabama on the moneyline. Despite an undefeated regular season, the Tide rewarded their moneyline bettors with only 1.6 units on the season, meaning just one loss would’ve put them in the red.

2017-18 Heisman Odds (8/15 BetOnline):

  • Derrius Guice (RB, LSU) +1200, Bo Scarbrough (RB, Alabama) +1400, Jalen Hurts (QB, Alabama) +1600, Jarrett Stidham (QB, Auburn) +2000, Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia) +2500, Kamryn Pettway (RB, Auburn) +2800, Nick Fitzgerald (QB, Mississippi State) +5000, Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama) +8000

Alabama running backs are no stranger to Heisman trophies, with Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry taking home the award in 2009 and 2015, respectively. Perhaps that’s a sign of the strength of the Bama running system, which would lead us to look no further than Bo Scarbrough at +1400. I’m personally not a fan of preseason Heisman betting, as we’ve often seen the winner come out of nowhere once the season starts, but I’m surprised that more bettors have not bet on Scarbrough based on the above logic and driven his odds closer to +1000. Of course there’s still a few weeks to go before the start of the season, so maybe we’ll start to see some movement.

Interested in our other conference previews? ACCBig Ten, Big 12, Pac-12

Getting ready to bet on college football games? Try our pro membership, with which you will receive best bet picks for all major sports, bet signals, public betting and dollar percentages, and more. Follow us on Twitter @SportsInsights to make sure you are up to date on blog posts, injuries, and sports betting information.

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How Good Will Alabama Be This Season?

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been the most consistent college football team since Nick Saban took over ten years ago, going 114-19 and winning 4 National Titles. They’ve also reached the College Football Playoff in all 3 years of its existence and are big -185 favorites to make it a fourth straight time. Alabama has become so good that sportsbooks are now posting a ton of props and futures for the upcoming season.

Below are Props and Futures available at 5Dimes for Alabama:

  • Undefeated in SEC regular season and SEC title game: +235
  • Undefeated in all regular season and SEC title game: +325
  • 15-0 National Champions: +525
  • 15-0 National Champions, all wins by 10+ points: +3500
  • 14-1 National Champions: +700
  • 13-1 National Champions: +1100
  • Reach National Championship Game: +120
  • Win National Championship Game: +270
  • Lose any game by 10+ points: +325
  • Win at least 9 games by 14+ points: -120
  • National Champions in 2017-18 and 2018-19: +775
  • Undefeated in all of 2017-18 and 2018-19: +2000

There are also a few prop bets on the number of points Alabama is expected to outscore their opponents by. In the regular season, Alabama is -299.5 vs their opponents. This means that after adding up the combined scores of all Alabama regular season games, the Crimson Tide are expected to have 299.5 more than their opponents.

It’s even higher if you include all games in the entire season (SEC title game, CFB Playoff): Alabama is favored by 329.5 points against their opponents. This is essentially saying that Alabama is expected to outscore their opponents by 30 points over the span of an SEC title game and two playoff games. This makes some sense since sportsbooks have to anticipate Alabama being big favorites in the SEC title game– last year Bama was favored by 21 against Florida and it wasn’t that close (Bama won 54-16). The Crimson Tide were also big favorites against both Washington (-15) and Clemson (-7) in the playoff. They covered against Washington but fell 35-31 to Clemson to ruin their perfect season.

Expectations are once again sky high for Alabama this year with a regular season win total of 10.5 (o-160). Alabama opens with a tough game against Florida State on a neutral venue, but the Crimson Tide are -7.5 point favorites. Can anyone actually stop and/or defeat this juggernaut? Feel free to leave your thoughts and comments in the space below.

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