2017 NFL Starting Quarterback Odds

Bookmaker was the first to post odds for the league’s most competitive quarterback battles going into the 2017-18 season. The Bears, Broncos, Browns, Jets and Texans have all been undecided when it comes to who will be their team’s starting quarterback entering Week 1. With the preseason underway, here’s a look at the odds.

Chicago Bears

PLAYER July 24 (Bookmaker)
Mike Glennon -1200
Mitchel Trubisky +700

Denver Broncos 

PLAYER July 31 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker)
Trevor Siemian -210 -360
Paxton Lynch +160 +270

Cleveland Browns

PLAYER Aug 18 (MyBookie) July 27 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker)
Cody Kessler -165 +180 +200
Brock Osweiler +130 +170 +155
DeShone Kizer +700 +190 +205
‘Field’ +800 N/A N/A
Kevin Hogan +1600 N/A N/A

New York Jets

PLAYER Aug 12 (Bookmaker) July 31 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker)
Josh McCown -255 -130 -105
Christian Hackenberg +235 +120 +105
Bryce Petty +2000 +2200 +1800

Houston Texans

PLAYER Aug 12 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker) July 24 open (Bookmaker)
Tom Savage -320 -320 -210
Deshaun Watson +280 +280 +220
Brandon Weeden +4000 +4000 +1500

Below was published July 17

Oddsmakers don’t seem to think the Bears battle will be much of a competition with Glennon opening at the -1200 favorite to earn the job for Chicago. The No.2 overall pick in the draft, Mitchell Trubisky, will need to impress during camp and through the preseason to win the job out of the gate. Trevor Siemian, the victor of last year’s quarterback competition in Denver, finds himself in another battle for the starting gig. He opens as the -360 favorite, but he’ll be competing with second-year quarterback Paxton Lynch to determine who’ll under center for the Broncos in Week 1.

In an unpredictable quarterback battle in Cleveland, Osweiler opens as the +155 favorite, narrowly ahead of Cody Kessler (+200) and DeShone Kizer (+205). The competition in New York will be between McCown (-105) and Hackenberg (+105), with dark horse Bryce Petty opening as the +1800 underdog. In the last quarterback competition we’ll focus on, Tom Savage opened at -210 favorite to start Week 1 for the Texans, but has already moved to -320. Those who are looking forward to watching Deshaun Watson will be disappointed to see his odds have dropped from +220 to +280.

Check back later this offseason for updated odds. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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Super Bowl 52 Odds and Theoretical Hold Percentages

When you want to make a bet at a sportsbook on a team to win the Super Bowl, there are a couple of things that you should know. First is whether or not you are getting the best possible payout that you can. Having multiple sportsbook accounts is something that we always recommend to bettors because by taking a slightly better line, you build up substantial units in the long run.

However, a second thing you should be aware of is a sportsbook’s theoretical hold. When betting on spreads, you can easily see that books are taking money through the juice — usually -110 on a standard spread or total. This helps ensure that they win money in the long run and trust me, they do.

NV sports books win record $14.9 million on baseball in June off record handle of $207.1 million, per state’s Gaming Control Board #RJNow

— Todd Dewey (@tdewey33) July 27, 2017

With futures, it’s tougher to tell just how much the books are taking. In the real world, there is a 100% chance that one team will win the Super Bowl. In the gambling world, a sportsbook’s Super Bowl futures and corresponding implied probabilities suggest that there is more than a 100% chance. The higher the percentage, the higher the hold and the lower the payouts.

To find a sportsbook’s theoretical hold percentage, you must first look at the odds for each team and convert them into implied probability by using this formula: (100/(100+odds). For example, a team with +500 odds would have a 16.67% implied probability (100/(100+500). Once we have the IP for every team, we can add them all together to get X. Then to get the hold, we finally finish up with the math by doing: 1-(1/X).

Oh, that’s right, people hate math! That’s why I have gone ahead and done it for you like the nice feller that I am. You can venmo me part of your winnings as a thank you.

For this exercise, we will be looking at nine different offshore sportsbooks (varying from sharp to square) and one Vegas book, the Westgate Superbook. I would have liked to include 5Dimes and Bovada in the sample, but 5Dimes has no odds for the Cowboys and Bovada doesn’t have any Super Bowl odds posted currently.

TEAM BOOKMKR IP PINNACLE IP BETONLINE IP BetUS IP MyBookie IP HERITAGE IP PADDYPOWER IP SPORTSBOOK IP GREEK IP WESTGATE IP
NE 303 24.81% 391 20.37% 275 26.67% 350 22.22% 400 20.00% 365 21.51% 400 20.00% 320 23.81% 300 25.00% 250 28.57%
GB 983 9.23% 951 9.51% 950 9.52% 900 10.00% 800 11.11% 950 9.52% 1000 9.09% 1100 8.33% 800 11.11% 800 11.11%
SEA 935 9.66% 966 9.38% 950 9.52% 900 10.00% 750 11.76% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09%
PIT 845 10.58% 1013 8.98% 1100 8.33% 1000 9.09% 900 10.00% 1050 8.70% 1100 8.33% 1300 7.14% 800 11.11% 1200 7.69%
DAL 1400 6.67% 1095 8.37% 1100 8.33% 1200 7.69% 750 11.76% 1150 8.00% 1400 6.67% 1700 5.56% 1200 7.69% 1200 7.69%
ATL 1022 8.91% 1200 7.69% 1100 8.33% 1300 7.14% 1100 8.33% 1400 6.67% 1200 7.69% 1300 7.14% 1500 6.25% 1200 7.69%
OAK 1451 6.45% 1752 5.40% 1200 7.69% 1800 5.26% 1500 6.25% 1675 5.63% 1800 5.26% 1600 5.88% 1200 7.69% 800 11.11%
NYG 1750 5.41% 2641 3.65% 1400 6.67% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 1700 5.56% 1800 5.26% 1800 5.26%
KC 2352 4.08% 2661 3.62% 2500 3.85% 1800 5.26% 1500 6.25% 2500 3.85% 2000 4.76% 3200 3.03% 2500 3.85% 3000 3.23%
HOU 2403 4.00% 2125 4.49% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 1800 5.26% 2850 3.39% 3300 2.94% 3000 3.23% 2800 3.45% 4000 2.44%
CAR 3004 3.22% 3090 3.13% 2800 3.45% 2400 4.00% 1800 5.26% 3250 2.99% 2500 3.85% 3000 3.23% 1800 5.26% 2500 3.85%
DEN 3707 2.63% 3192 3.04% 2800 3.45% 1600 5.88% 1300 7.14% 3325 2.92% 2000 4.76% 4000 2.44% 3000 3.23% 4000 2.44%
IND 6500 1.52% 4568 2.14% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 3500 2.78% 3300 2.94% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96% 5000 1.96%
MIN 3799 2.56% 3749 2.60% 3600 2.70% 2400 4.00% 2000 4.76% 3525 2.76% 2500 3.85% 4500 2.17% 3500 2.78% 4000 2.44%
TB 3813 2.56% 4311 2.27% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 3800 2.56% 3300 2.94% 3000 3.23% 2500 3.85% 4000 2.44%
ARI 4200 2.33% 3476 2.80% 3300 2.94% 2400 4.00% 1600 5.88% 4200 2.33% 2500 3.85% 3500 2.78% 3000 3.23% 2500 3.85%
TEN 3756 2.59% 3384 2.87% 3300 2.94% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 4500 2.17% 3300 2.94% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3000 3.23%
BAL 7200 1.37% 4575 2.14% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 2800 3.45% 4700 2.08% 3300 2.94% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44%
PHI 3619 2.69% 4682 2.09% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44%
LAC 5600 1.75% 4782 2.05% 4500 2.17% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 5350 1.83% 4000 2.44% 5000 1.96% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96%
NO 5500 1.79% 6254 1.57% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 5700 1.72% 4000 2.44% 5000 1.96% 4500 2.17% 5000 1.96%
DET 6300 1.56% 5754 1.71% 5000 1.96% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 7000 1.41% 6000 1.64% 6000 1.64%
CIN 7500 1.32% 6678 1.48% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 6525 1.51% 3300 2.94% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 6000 1.64%
WAS 6700 1.47% 8121 1.22% 6600 1.49% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 7500 1.32% 5000 1.96% 7000 1.41% 5000 1.96% 8000 1.23%
MIA 6500 1.52% 7226 1.37% 6600 1.49% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 8400 1.18% 4000 2.44% 7500 1.32% 7500 1.32% 8000 1.23%
JAX 9000 1.10% 6067 1.62% 6600 1.49% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 9000 1.10% 6600 1.49% 8000 1.23% 8000 1.23% 8000 1.23%
BUF 16000 0.62% 11550 0.86% 10000 0.99% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 17500 0.57% 7500 1.32% 20000 0.50% 15000 0.66% 8000 1.23%
CHI 16500 0.60% 19456 0.51% 17500 0.57% 10000 0.99% 8000 1.23% 20000 0.50% 10000 0.99% 15000 0.66% 20000 0.50% 10000 0.99%
LAR 17000 0.58% 17466 0.57% 17500 0.57% 10000 0.99% 8000 1.23% 25000 0.40% 12500 0.79% 20000 0.50% 12500 0.79% 8000 1.23%
CLE 24000 0.41% 26649 0.37% 25000 0.40% 15000 0.66% 10000 0.99% 30000 0.33% 20000 0.50% 25000 0.40% 30000 0.33% 30000 0.33%
SF 18500 0.54% 43190 0.23% 30000 0.33% 13000 0.76% 10000 0.99% 40000 0.25% 10000 0.99% 25000 0.40% 35000 0.28% 20000 0.50%
NYJ 35000 0.28% 27603 0.36% 50000 0.20% 13000 0.76% 8000 1.23% 40000 0.25% 20000 0.50% 32500 0.31% 35000 0.28% 50000 0.20%

*Odds accurate as of 8/17/17

Hold Percentages

  • Sportsbook: 12.44%
  • Heritage: 13.98%
  • Pinnacle: 15.58%
  • Bookmaker: 19.88%
  • Paddy Power: 23.28%
  • Greek: 24.54%
  • BetOnline: 25.45%
  • Westgate: 25.57%
  • BetUS: 26.27%
  • MyBookie: 36.51%

Sportsbook has experienced payout delays recently, but they do have the best hold percentage on the market. However, they could be posting enticing odds to attract new customers.

The three books following them are the three sharpest books in the sample, all of which have great reputations according to sportsbook review sites. Westgate comes in on the higher side, but that should be expected for a Vegas book as they have been known to have holds pushing 50%.

MyBookie…I love the prop bets this book puts out, but golly gee whiz their Super Bowl odds suck. Oddly enough, they have the best payout for the Patriots, but the worst odds for many of the other teams.

Keep in mind that these are the hold percentages for these particular Super Bowl odds, not for every future the book posts. Last year, the books came in a similar order, but the percentages were relatively different. We did a similar exercise for the World Series this year, which yielded very interesting results comparatively speaking. Heritage, nearly the best book for each of the past two Super Bowls, was tied for dead last at 30.69%! These clearly vary from year-to-year and sport-to-sport. I am guessing many of these percentages are worse than last year’s due to the Patriots’ historically great odds.

If you have a particular team in mind, here is where you can find the best payout for each. Quick! Go get those Jets at 500/1 at BetOnline before the line moves!

Best Odds Per team

  • Arizona: +4200 (Bookmaker & Heritage)
  • Atlanta: +1500 (Greek)
  • Baltimore: +7200 (Bookmaker)
  • Buffalo: +20000 (Sportsbook)
  • Carolina: +3250 (Heritage)
  • Chicago: +20000 (Heritage & Greek)
  • Cincinnati: +7500 (Bookmaker)
  • Cleveland: +30000 (Heritage, Greek, & Westgate)
  • Dallas: +1700 (Sportsbook)
  • Denver: +4000 (Sportsbook & Westgate)
  • Detroit: +7000 (Sportsbook)
  • Green Bay: +1100 (Sportsbook)
  • Houston: +4000 (Westgate)
  • Indianapolis: +6500 (Bookmaker & Sportsbook)
  • Jacksonville: +9000 (Bookmaker & Heritage)
  • Kansas City: +3200 (Sportsbook)
  • LA Chargers: +660 (BetUS)
  • LA Rams: +25000 (Heritage)
  • Miami: +8400 (Heritage)
  • Minnesota: +4500 (Sportsbook)
  • New England: +400 (MyBookie & Paddy Power)
  • New Orleans: +5700 (Heritage)
  • NY Giants: +2641 (Pinnacle)
  • NY Jets: +50000 (BetOnline & Westgate)
  • Oakland: +1800 (BetUS & Paddy Power)
  • Philadelphia: +5000 (Heritage)
  • Pittsburgh: +1300 (Sportsbook)
  • San Francisco: +43190 (Pinnacle)
  • Seattle: +1000 (Heritage, Paddy Power, Sportsbook, Greek, & Westgate)
  • Tampa Bay: +4311 (Pinnacle)
  • Tennessee: +5000 (BetUS)
  • Washington: +8000 (Westgate)

Best Team Odds per Book

  • Heritage: 10
  • Sportsbook: 10
  • Westgate: 6
  • Bookmaker: 5
  • Greek: 4
  • BetUS: 3
  • Paddy Power: 3
  • Pinnacle: 3
  • BetUS: 2
  • BetOnline: 1

These generally line up with the hold percentage rankings, but there are some differences. Despite having one of the best holds, Pinnacle only offers three of the best payouts — one of which is the 49ers. Meanwhile, Westgate has one of the worst holds but several of the best payouts. Seahawks fans heading to Vegas might want to head over to the Superbook and put down some money.

If you’re wondering how preseason odds have translated into Super Bowl champions, here are the preseason odds for each team dating back to Super Bowl 36.

Super Bowl Team Preseason Odds
51 New England Patriots +600
50 Denver Broncos +900
49 New England Patriots +650
48 Seattle Seahawks +800
47 Baltimore Ravens +1800
46 New York Giants +2200
45 Green Bay Packers +1100
44 New Orleans Saints +2000
43 Pittsburgh Steelers +1800
42 New York Giants +3000
41 Indianapolis Colts +600
40 Pittsburgh Steelers +1200
39 New England Patriots +600
38 New England Patriots +1500
37 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200
36 New England Patriots +6000

Historical Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com

Will the Patriots win another Super Bowl and make this post a waste of time? I wouldn’t really mind since I’m a Pats fan…

If you’ve missed our first three summer series articles, make sure you check them out.

The Difference Between Sports Bettors and Sports Investors

Who are the Best and Worst Backup Quarterbacks in the League?

Turf, Temps, and Tornadoes: What to Look for When Betting NFL Totals

Follow us on Twitter @SportsInsights so you stay up to date on all of our blogs.

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Fantasy News: Adrian Peterson Nonsense

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Fantasy Football People! What’s going on? More and more Fantasy
Football analysts are talking up the Minnesota Vikings offense as a
place to go for Fantasy Football production in 2017. Sounds weird
considering they were in the bottom half of the league in points
scored in 2016. With further investigation, it looks as if it’s
safe to say they maybe on to something. The Vikings took steps to
improve their offensive line in the offseason. Their second round
draft pick, Dalvin Cook, will be a Fantasy Football stud. Healthy
seasons from Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen can make both WRs Top 30
Fantasy Football producers at the receiver position. Kyle Rudolph
finally showed up last season, putting up TE 1 numbers. So, I get
it. The Vikings will be better offensively.

With all these good things happening for the Vikings’ offense,
guess who has been the talk of OTAs and Mini Camp? That stiff,
Laquon Treadwell. The rookie could barely get on the field last
season due to foot and ankle injuries. Well, so far this offseason
things have changed. Treadwell is taking first team reps in three
receiver sets and looks more comfortable in the offense. It will be
interesting to see if this talk keeps up when they put on the pads.
Fantasy Football owners drafting right now can put a dollar on
Treadwell extremely late in the draft. I have done so myself in a
few leagues.

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2017-18 NFL Playoff Odds

With the start of the NFL regular season just over two months away, Westgate has come out with their Yes/No odds for every team to make the playoffs.

Team Yes No
Arizona Cardinals +175 -200
Atlanta Falcons -150 +130
Baltimore Ravens -110 -110
Buffalo Bills +550 -800
Carolina Panthers -110 -110
Chicago Bears +1200 -3000
Cincinnati Bengals +140 -160
Cleveland Browns +2000 -10000
Dallas Cowboys -200 +175
Denver Broncos +220 -260
Detroit Lions +300 -360
Green Bay Packers -310 +260
Houston Texans +140 -160
Indianapolis Colts +140 -160
Jacksonville Jaguars +400 -500
Kansas City Chiefs -150 +130
Los Angeles Chargers +270 -330
Los Angeles Rams +900 -1600
Miami Dolphins +375 -450
Minnesota Vikings +160 -180
New England Patriots -5000 +1500
New Orleans Saints +240 -280
New York Giants +130 -150
New York Jets +2000 -10000
Oakland Raiders -160 +140
Philadelphia Eagles +175 -200
Pittsburgh Steelers -340 +280
San Francisco 49ers +1400 -4000
Seattle Seahawks -600 +450
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +175 -200
Tennessee Titans +140 -160
Washington Redskins +330 -400

These odds offer a few great value options. For starters, like the Broncos at +220 to make the playoffs, especially after adding a supposedly healthy Jamaal Charles to take some pressure off of whomever wins the quarterback race. With some question marks surrounding other Wild Card teams in the AFC, I wouldn’t be shocked to see three AFC West teams in the postseason.

In the NFC, the Panthers strike me as a team ready to bounce back from a disappointing 2016. Christian McCaffrey should step into a significant role right away, giving Cam Newton a solid short-yard option. The return of Julius Peppers also makes the Panthers, at -110, a good value for a team that could very easily be a division winner.

If you’re looking for more of a long shot pick, the Seahawks missing the playoffs at +450 is intriguing. Seattle has plenty of question marks for a team so heavily favored to make the postseason, including their offensive line, backfield, and seeming desire to part ways with cornerback Richard Sherman during the offseason.

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Which NFL Head Coach Will Be Fired First in the 2017-18 Season?

Not all props and futures deal with good news – 5Dimes recently released odds on which NFL head coach would be the first to be fired during the 2017-18 season. Sportsbooks may have different rules on this prop, but 5Dimes specifies that the head coach must coach in Week 1 for action. The rules also specify that “firing” includes dismissal, resignation and retirement. Here are the odds below, where Jets HC Todd Bowles is the favorite:

Coach July 3 Odds
Todd Bowles (NYJ) +500
Hue Jackson (CLE) +525
John Fox (CHI) +825
Jim Caldwell (DET) +1050
Chuck Pagano (IND) +1050
Bill O’Brien (HOU) +1200
Marvin Lewis (CIN) +1200
Sean Payton (NO) +1400
Adam Gase (MIA) +1500
Ben McAdoo (NYG) +1700
Mike McCarthy (GB) +2300
Mike Zimmer (MIN) +2300
Mike Mularkey (TEN) +2300
Dan Quinn (ATL) +2300
Sean McDermott (BUF) +2700
Doug Marrone (JAX) +2800
Doug Pederson (PHI) +2800
Jay Gruden (WAS) +2800
Ron Rivera (CAR) +3300
Sean McVay (LAR) +3300
Jason Garrett (DAL) +3300
Dirk Koetter (TB) +3300
Vance Joseph (DEN) +5500
Anthony Lynn (LAC) +5500
Bruce Arians (ARZ) +5500
Jack Del Rio (OAK) +5500
John Harbaugh (BAL) +5500
Mike Tomlin (PIT) +5500
Kyle Shanahan (SF) +7500
Andy Reid (KC) +8500
Pete Carroll (SEA) +15000
Bill Belichick (NE) +50000

Last season it was Jeff Fisher (LAC) to be the first head coach fired (which occurred on December 12th). Before the 2016-17 season he was listed at +700 to be the first coach gone while Jim Caldwell (DET) was the +370 favorite. Unfortunately for Jim Caldwell, he’s near the top of the list once again heading into the 2017-18 season at +1050 odds. There’s no surprise at the very top with Todd Bowles (NYJ) and Hue Jackson (CLE), as the Jets and Browns are expected to be two of the worst teams this year.

A couple head coaches worth keeping an eye on is Chuck Pagano (IND) and Marvin Lewis (CIN). Pagano is coming off back-to-back disappointing .500 seasons and missing the playoffs in a weak AFC South. The Colts do have a favorable schedule early on for 2017-18, but a slow start could just add fuel to the fire.

As for Lewis, he led the Bengals to five straight playoff appearances but has never won a playoff game, and Cincy went just 6-9-1 last season while missing the playoffs entirely. Cincinnati is expected to turn it around in 2017-18, but those expectations could ultimately mean the end for Lewis. If the Bengals struggle again, especially early in the season, Cincinnati may not wait to make a change.

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2017 NFL MVP Odds

Last season Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan threw for 4,944 yards with 38 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while leading his team to an 11-5 regular season record and the NFC South crown. Although they ultimately lost to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 51, Ryan earned his first career MVP Award for that spectacular regular season performance. Bettors who had faith in the former Boston College standout were rewarded handsomely, as Ryan was available between 90/1 and 135/1 to win the NFL MVP Award prior to the start of the season.
View the latest lines and trends presented here.

Since the award was first handed out in 1957, more quarterbacks have won this award (40) than all other positions combined (21). Included in those other winners are 18 running backs, one defensive tackle (Alan Page in 1971), one place kicker (Mark Moseley in 1982) and one linebacker (Lawrence Taylor in 1986). Since 95% of past winners have been either running backs or quarterbacks, bettors may want to avoid placing a wager on some of the league’s most electric wide receivers like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham Jr.

The table below displays the past MVP winners along with their preseason odds.

Year Player Position Preseason Odds
2016 Matt Ryan QB +9000
2015 Cam Newton QB +1500
2014 Aaron Rodgers QB +600
2013 Peyton Manning QB +600
2012 Adrian Peterson RB +4000
2011 Aaron Rodgers QB +400
2010 Tom Brady QB +800
2009 Peyton Manning QB +500

On Monday (6/27) morning, Bovada released odds for the 2017 NFL MVP with Ryan (+1600) listed with the seventh-best odds. Interestingly, all six players with shorter odds are quarterbacks including the favorite, Tom Brady at +450. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (+700) enters the season with the second-best odds for the third consecutive season.

The table below examines the current NFL MVP odds at Bovada. It will be updated as more information becomes available.

Player Team Odds
Tom Brady NE +450
Aaron Rodgers GB +700
Derek Carr OAK +900
Ben Roethlisberger PIT +1000
Dak Prescott DAL +1200
Russell Wilson SEA +1200
Matt Ryan ATL +1600
Ezekiel Elliott DAL +2000
Cam Newton CAR +2500
Andrew Luck IND +2500
Drew Brees NO +2500
David Johnson ARI +3300
Marcus Mariota TEN +3300
Le’Veon Bell PIT +3300
Antonio Brown PIT +5000
Julio Jones ATL +5000
Carson Palmer ARI +5000
Sam Bradford MIN +5000
Matt Stafford DET +5000
Eli Manning NYG +5000
Philip Rivers LAC +5000
Adrian Peterson NO +5000
Kirk Cousins WAS +5000
Jameis Winston TB +5000
Alex Smith KC +6600
Ryan Tannehill MIA +6600
Odell Beckham Jr. NYG +6600
J.J. Watt HOU +6600
Rob Gronkowski NE +6600
Khalil Mack OAK +6600
T.Y. Hilton IND +10000
Von Miller DEN +10000
Andy Dalton CIN +10000
Carson Wentz PHI +10000
Joe Flacco BAL +10000
Marshawn Lynch OAK +10000
LeSean McCoy BUF +10000
Blake Bortles JAX +10000
DeMarco Murray PHI +10000

Although these odds will likely change dramatically by the time the regular season rolls around, there are several players that appear to be offering value. One of my personal favorites is Andrew Luck, who’s currently available at 25/1.

Last season Luck struggled with injuries but still managed to rack up 4,240 passing yards and 33 total touchdowns while posting a career-high 63.5% completion percentage. The Colts offensive line has been rightfully scrutinized in the past, but this unit should (finally) see some stability this season. New general manager Chris Ballard has also improved the team’s defense over the offseason, which should take some pressure off Luck.

I’m not particularly optimistic about the Colts’ competition in the AFC South, and I think Indianapolis should be a playoff team this season. Luck is a top-five quarterback when he’s healthy, and he’s capable of posting massive statistics — especially if T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief can both stay healthy all year. Luck was the MVP favorite just three years ago, and I think people may be overreacting to some of his recent struggles. It will be interesting to see where other books open, but Luck is a player to watch at 25/1.

Which players do you think are offering value? Do you think that Matt Ryan will be able repeat? Please leave your thoughts in the comments section.

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