2017 Gold Cup Odds

The 2017 Gold Cup is a summer tournament consisting of 12 CONCACAF teams, starting on July 7th and concluding on July 26th. The Gold Cup is every two years and will be hosted by the United States in 2017. The 12 teams are split into three groups– the top two teams from every group advance to the next round, as well as the two best third-place squads. Basically 8 of the 12 teams will advance from their group into the knockout stage. Here are the three groups for this year’s Gold Cup:

Group A: Costa Rica, Honduras, French Guiana, Canada
Group B: United States, Panama, Nicaragua, Martinique
Group C: Mexico, El Salvador, Jamaica, Curacao

Despite having home-field advantage, USA (+160) are listed behind Mexico (+130) to win the entire tournament. Here are odds for all 12 countries via 5Dimes:

Country June 29 Odds
Mexico +130
USA +160
Costa Rica +700
Panama +1800
Honduras +3500
Jamaica +3500
Canada +5000
Nicaragua +15000
El Salvador +15000
Curacao +15000
French Guyana +20000
Martinique +25000

The Gold Cup has been dominated by Mexico and USA historically– Mexico won in 2015 and have won 3 of the last 4 tournaments. USA won back in 2013 and also won consecutive Gold Cups in 2005 and 2007. Canada is the only other CONCACAF nation to win a Gold Cup, back in 2000.

The Gold Cup provides a chance to get younger players some experience, and Mexico’s squad will be very different from the one they took to the Confederations Cup in Russia. USA won’t have their full squad either, but most of their players come from the MLS which is in mid-season. USA also have home-field advantage which should be hugely beneficial on a game-to-game basis.

I’d lean toward betting USA over Mexico to win it all, but I think a more worthy bet to make before the tournament is Costa Rica +725 (current odds at 5Dimes). They made a nice run in the 2014 World Cup and have an in-tact squad with a nice mix of players from the MLS and overseas. They’re clearly the third-best squad and if they can simply reach a final, +725 is a great price to be able to hedge down the line.

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2017 Confederations Cup Final Preview: Germany vs. Chile

The 2017 Confederations Cup Final will feature Germany vs. Chile on Sunday afternoon at 2pm ET, a rematch of their 1-1 draw from the group stage. Germany opened as the favorites to win the tourney at +205 while Chile were available at +320. The current odds to lift the trophy are Germany -123/Chile +112. Neither team has lost during this year’s tournament, but Germany remain the slight favorite in the final on the 3-way moneyline (odds and betting %’s via Bookmaker):

Germany +145 (65% of bets)
Chile +200 (27% of bets)
Draw +230 (8% of bets)
Over/Under 2.5 (u-130)

When these teams met in the group stage, the odds were much different and Chile were the slight favorites at +163 (Germany +182, Draw +250). Not much has changed over that time, so it’s a little surprising to see the markets clearly favoring Germany now. Chile are more experienced and haven’t yet played to their potential this tournament, which could be good or bad news depending how you look at it. I choose to look on the optimistic side due to their leadership and top-level talent, and expect Chile to play their best game of the tourney on Sunday. With a +320 futures ticket riding on Chile to win the title, I’m already invested in the final.

In the semifinal matches, I took both draws (big surprise, right?) and was able to profit +1.36 units. Draws have been lucrative this entire tournament, earning bettors +6.2 units if you bet the draw in all 14 games. Betting on the ‘underdog’ has not fared well at all, winning just 1 of 14 games, while favorites have won 8 times in 14 games.

In the final, public bettors continue to overlook the draw line and instead are taking a side. The large majority of early bets are on Germany (65%) although their win probability is ~41%. There hasn’t been any line movement at Bookmaker since opening on Thursday night, another good indication that the market is fine taking early public bets on Germany. Once again, I’m leaning toward the draw in this final at +230 odds and hoping Chile can win in extra time or penalty kicks.

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