Odds to make the 2017-18 College Football Playoff

Odds to make the 2017-18 College Football Playoff were released at 5Dimes back in June and Alabama (-195) was the only odds-on favorite to make it. Since then, we’ve updated the odds for each team to make and miss the 4-team playoff.

School Make Playoff
(Aug 19)
Miss Playoff
(Aug 19)
Make Playoff
(June 17)
Miss Playoff
(June 17)
Alabama -195 +155 -195 +155
Ohio State +140 -180 +160 -210
USC +145 -185 +140 -180
Florida State +150 -190 +145 -185
Oklahoma +250 -350 +250 -350
Washington +425 -675 +425 -675
Penn State +450 -750 +450 -750
LSU +450 -750 +450 -750
Michigan +500 -900 +500 -900
Auburn +500 -900 +600 -1200
Clemson +700 -1500 +600 -1200
Wisconsin +725 -1545 +700 -1500
Oklahoma State +800 -1700 +700 -1500
Georgia +825 -1725 +825 -1725
Texas +850 -1750 +850 -1750
Florida +850 -1750 +825 -1725
Louisville +1000 -2000 +1000 -2000
Miami Florida +1200 -2600 +1100 -2300
Notre Dame +1300 -3000 +1300 -3000
Virginia Tech +1400 -3600 +1500 -4500
Tennessee +1500 -4500 +1400 -3600
Stanford +1600 -4800 +1600 -4800
Kansas State +1600 -4800 +1200 -2600
TCU +1700 -5100 +1350 -3250
Oregon +1700 -5100 +1700 -5100
UCLA +1800 -5400 +1800 -5400
Washington State +1900 -5700 +1700 -5100
South Florida +3000 -11000 +4000 -16000
NC State +3700 -14100 +3000 -11000
BYU +3700 -14100 +3000 -11000
Texas A&M +3700 -14100 +3100 -11300
Nebraska +3700 -14100 +3000 -11000
Utah +5500 -21500 +3400 -12800
Colorado +6000 -24000 +3300 -12100
Northwestern +6000 -24000 +3500 -13500
Iowa +6000 -24000 +4300 -16900
Arkansas +7000 -30000 +6000 -24000
West Virginia +7000 -30000 +2300 -6900
Minnesota +8000 -35000 +4500 -17500
Arizona State +8000 -35000 +7000 -30000
Mississippi State +8000 -35000 +7000 -30000
Baylor +8000 -35000 +3300 -12100
Michigan State +8000 -35000 N/A N/A
North Carolina +8500 -37500 +6000 -24000
Pittsburgh +8500 -37500 +4000 -16000
Georgia Tech +10000 -50000 +4000 -16000
Boise State +10000 -50000 +4500 -17500
South Carolina +13500 -67500 +9000 -41000
Indiana +15000 -75000 +12500 -62500
Duke +15000 -75000 +9500 -45500

If we expect all the favorites to make the 2017-18 playoff, it’ll be Alabama vs. Florida State, and Ohio State vs. USC.

Last year we saw Alabama (+125), Ohio State (+195), Clemson (+195) and Washington (+500) make the 4-team playoff. In the National Championship, Clemson upset Alabama 35-31 in an epic game. Oklahoma (+175) was the only one of the “favorites” not to make the 4-team playoff.

5Dimes also has a few variations of prop bets available for the 2017-18 playoff:

Will the playoff be the 4 favorites of Alabama, Florida State, USC and Ohio State?
Yes +1200, No -2250

Will a team with 2 or more losses be selected for the playoff?
Yes +170, No -230

Will a single conference get 2 or more teams in the playoff?
Yes +260, No -380

Check out current odds, opening lines and betting percentages for all Week 1 games.

Win Totals for 130 schools

Conference Previews: ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC

Heisman Trophy Odds



Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor Betting Odds

Despite the fact that both sides had yet to agree on a Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor superfight, sportsbooks began posting odds for this potential blockbuster more than a year ago. We’re now just a week away and books have already taken considerable action on this fight. Below shows how odds have moved at a handful of offshore sportsbooks.

  8/18/17
(BKMR**)
8/17/17
(Bovada)
8/17/17
(5Dimes)
8/17/17
(BOL*)
8/16/17
(Bovada)
8/16/17
(5Dimes)
8/16/17
(BOL*)
8/10/17
(Bovada)
8/10/17
(5Dimes)
8/10/17
(BOL*)
7/13/17
(Bovada)
7/13/17
(5Dimes)
7/13/17
(BOL*)
6/14/17
(BOL*)
6/12/17
(BOL*)
5/12/17
(BKMR**)
5/12/17
(BOL)
5/12/17
(Bovada)
5/12/17
(5Dimes)
1/18/17
(TopBet)
5/9/16
(Bovada)
Conor McGregor +348 +325 +450 +390 +350 +450 +385 +375 +490 +500 +350 +520 +470 +650 +850 +735 +1000 +475 +700 +1000 +900
Floyd Mayweather -470 -450 -600 -505 -500 -600 -500 -550 -680 -675 -500 -740 -620 -1000 -1400 -1085 -1550 -750 -1100 -2000 -2000

*Odds via BetOnline      **Odds via Bookmaker

Mayweather down to -600. A McGregor upset now pays +450. Don’t wait too long McGregor bettors

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) August 15, 2017

ODDS MOVEMENT ALERT! Mayweather down to -580. McGregor now +450. Head trader “This might get to -400”. https://t.co/fFrQQCd6Sg

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) August 15, 2017

Updated #MayweatherMcGregor Odds @bovada
Floyd -500
Conor +350@bookmaker_eu
Floyd -605
Conor +403@5dimes
Floyd -610
Conor +455 pic.twitter.com/MqmtOLXvd3

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) August 15, 2017

Mayweather-McGregor will use 8-oz gloves per Nevada Commission ruling. Was 10-oz. Both fighters lobbied for 8. Should help harder hitter.

— Dan Wetzel (@DanWetzel) August 16, 2017

Over the last few weeks, the odds have moved big in McGregor’s favor, down to +325 at Bovada and even +348 at Bookmaker. More than 80% of tickets have come in on McGregor at Bookmaker and 95% (!) at William Hill US.

McGregor still getting the bulk of action @WilliamHillUS against Mayweather. Odds opened +700, now +425. #MayweatherMcGregor pic.twitter.com/81skYULebz

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) August 17, 2017

This has been consistent from the start as over 90% of early tickets were also coming in on McGregor. This isn’t all that surprising considering the reluctance of recreational bettors to lay moneyline odds in such a high range, but bigger bets have come in on Mayweather.

Approximate average size of bet @CGTechnology_:
McGregor — $140
Mayweather — $6,000
Per @jsimbal.

— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) August 17, 2017

Fun conversation on the @dpshow now with Gavin Maloof who bet $880,000 with his brother on Floyd Mayweather (-550) to beat Conor McGregor.

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) August 15, 2017

If you don’t want to bet on the fight, there are plenty of interesting prop bets to monitor here.

Obvious reminder that this fight is a boxing match and not an MMA match.

Original note when article was first published: Those interested in betting on this fight should be sure to read the fine print as sportsbooks have strict rules regarding date deadlines, sanctioning bodies, boxing vs. MMA rules, etc.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

2017 NFL Starting Quarterback Odds

Bookmaker was the first to post odds for the league’s most competitive quarterback battles going into the 2017-18 season. The Bears, Broncos, Browns, Jets and Texans have all been undecided when it comes to who will be their team’s starting quarterback entering Week 1. With the preseason underway, here’s a look at the odds.

Chicago Bears

PLAYER July 24 (Bookmaker)
Mike Glennon -1200
Mitchel Trubisky +700

Denver Broncos 

PLAYER July 31 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker)
Trevor Siemian -210 -360
Paxton Lynch +160 +270

Cleveland Browns

PLAYER Aug 18 (MyBookie) July 27 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker)
Cody Kessler -165 +180 +200
Brock Osweiler +130 +170 +155
DeShone Kizer +700 +190 +205
‘Field’ +800 N/A N/A
Kevin Hogan +1600 N/A N/A

New York Jets

PLAYER Aug 12 (Bookmaker) July 31 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker)
Josh McCown -255 -130 -105
Christian Hackenberg +235 +120 +105
Bryce Petty +2000 +2200 +1800

Houston Texans

PLAYER Aug 12 (Bookmaker) July 24 (Bookmaker) July 24 open (Bookmaker)
Tom Savage -320 -320 -210
Deshaun Watson +280 +280 +220
Brandon Weeden +4000 +4000 +1500

Below was published July 17

Oddsmakers don’t seem to think the Bears battle will be much of a competition with Glennon opening at the -1200 favorite to earn the job for Chicago. The No.2 overall pick in the draft, Mitchell Trubisky, will need to impress during camp and through the preseason to win the job out of the gate. Trevor Siemian, the victor of last year’s quarterback competition in Denver, finds himself in another battle for the starting gig. He opens as the -360 favorite, but he’ll be competing with second-year quarterback Paxton Lynch to determine who’ll under center for the Broncos in Week 1.

In an unpredictable quarterback battle in Cleveland, Osweiler opens as the +155 favorite, narrowly ahead of Cody Kessler (+200) and DeShone Kizer (+205). The competition in New York will be between McCown (-105) and Hackenberg (+105), with dark horse Bryce Petty opening as the +1800 underdog. In the last quarterback competition we’ll focus on, Tom Savage opened at -210 favorite to start Week 1 for the Texans, but has already moved to -320. Those who are looking forward to watching Deshaun Watson will be disappointed to see his odds have dropped from +220 to +280.

Check back later this offseason for updated odds. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

Super Bowl 52 Odds and Theoretical Hold Percentages

When you want to make a bet at a sportsbook on a team to win the Super Bowl, there are a couple of things that you should know. First is whether or not you are getting the best possible payout that you can. Having multiple sportsbook accounts is something that we always recommend to bettors because by taking a slightly better line, you build up substantial units in the long run.

However, a second thing you should be aware of is a sportsbook’s theoretical hold. When betting on spreads, you can easily see that books are taking money through the juice — usually -110 on a standard spread or total. This helps ensure that they win money in the long run and trust me, they do.

NV sports books win record $14.9 million on baseball in June off record handle of $207.1 million, per state’s Gaming Control Board #RJNow

— Todd Dewey (@tdewey33) July 27, 2017

With futures, it’s tougher to tell just how much the books are taking. In the real world, there is a 100% chance that one team will win the Super Bowl. In the gambling world, a sportsbook’s Super Bowl futures and corresponding implied probabilities suggest that there is more than a 100% chance. The higher the percentage, the higher the hold and the lower the payouts.

To find a sportsbook’s theoretical hold percentage, you must first look at the odds for each team and convert them into implied probability by using this formula: (100/(100+odds). For example, a team with +500 odds would have a 16.67% implied probability (100/(100+500). Once we have the IP for every team, we can add them all together to get X. Then to get the hold, we finally finish up with the math by doing: 1-(1/X).

Oh, that’s right, people hate math! That’s why I have gone ahead and done it for you like the nice feller that I am. You can venmo me part of your winnings as a thank you.

For this exercise, we will be looking at nine different offshore sportsbooks (varying from sharp to square) and one Vegas book, the Westgate Superbook. I would have liked to include 5Dimes and Bovada in the sample, but 5Dimes has no odds for the Cowboys and Bovada doesn’t have any Super Bowl odds posted currently.

TEAM BOOKMKR IP PINNACLE IP BETONLINE IP BetUS IP MyBookie IP HERITAGE IP PADDYPOWER IP SPORTSBOOK IP GREEK IP WESTGATE IP
NE 303 24.81% 391 20.37% 275 26.67% 350 22.22% 400 20.00% 365 21.51% 400 20.00% 320 23.81% 300 25.00% 250 28.57%
GB 983 9.23% 951 9.51% 950 9.52% 900 10.00% 800 11.11% 950 9.52% 1000 9.09% 1100 8.33% 800 11.11% 800 11.11%
SEA 935 9.66% 966 9.38% 950 9.52% 900 10.00% 750 11.76% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09%
PIT 845 10.58% 1013 8.98% 1100 8.33% 1000 9.09% 900 10.00% 1050 8.70% 1100 8.33% 1300 7.14% 800 11.11% 1200 7.69%
DAL 1400 6.67% 1095 8.37% 1100 8.33% 1200 7.69% 750 11.76% 1150 8.00% 1400 6.67% 1700 5.56% 1200 7.69% 1200 7.69%
ATL 1022 8.91% 1200 7.69% 1100 8.33% 1300 7.14% 1100 8.33% 1400 6.67% 1200 7.69% 1300 7.14% 1500 6.25% 1200 7.69%
OAK 1451 6.45% 1752 5.40% 1200 7.69% 1800 5.26% 1500 6.25% 1675 5.63% 1800 5.26% 1600 5.88% 1200 7.69% 800 11.11%
NYG 1750 5.41% 2641 3.65% 1400 6.67% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 1700 5.56% 1800 5.26% 1800 5.26%
KC 2352 4.08% 2661 3.62% 2500 3.85% 1800 5.26% 1500 6.25% 2500 3.85% 2000 4.76% 3200 3.03% 2500 3.85% 3000 3.23%
HOU 2403 4.00% 2125 4.49% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 1800 5.26% 2850 3.39% 3300 2.94% 3000 3.23% 2800 3.45% 4000 2.44%
CAR 3004 3.22% 3090 3.13% 2800 3.45% 2400 4.00% 1800 5.26% 3250 2.99% 2500 3.85% 3000 3.23% 1800 5.26% 2500 3.85%
DEN 3707 2.63% 3192 3.04% 2800 3.45% 1600 5.88% 1300 7.14% 3325 2.92% 2000 4.76% 4000 2.44% 3000 3.23% 4000 2.44%
IND 6500 1.52% 4568 2.14% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 3500 2.78% 3300 2.94% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96% 5000 1.96%
MIN 3799 2.56% 3749 2.60% 3600 2.70% 2400 4.00% 2000 4.76% 3525 2.76% 2500 3.85% 4500 2.17% 3500 2.78% 4000 2.44%
TB 3813 2.56% 4311 2.27% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 3800 2.56% 3300 2.94% 3000 3.23% 2500 3.85% 4000 2.44%
ARI 4200 2.33% 3476 2.80% 3300 2.94% 2400 4.00% 1600 5.88% 4200 2.33% 2500 3.85% 3500 2.78% 3000 3.23% 2500 3.85%
TEN 3756 2.59% 3384 2.87% 3300 2.94% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 4500 2.17% 3300 2.94% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3000 3.23%
BAL 7200 1.37% 4575 2.14% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 2800 3.45% 4700 2.08% 3300 2.94% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44%
PHI 3619 2.69% 4682 2.09% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44%
LAC 5600 1.75% 4782 2.05% 4500 2.17% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 5350 1.83% 4000 2.44% 5000 1.96% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96%
NO 5500 1.79% 6254 1.57% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 5700 1.72% 4000 2.44% 5000 1.96% 4500 2.17% 5000 1.96%
DET 6300 1.56% 5754 1.71% 5000 1.96% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 7000 1.41% 6000 1.64% 6000 1.64%
CIN 7500 1.32% 6678 1.48% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 6525 1.51% 3300 2.94% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 6000 1.64%
WAS 6700 1.47% 8121 1.22% 6600 1.49% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 7500 1.32% 5000 1.96% 7000 1.41% 5000 1.96% 8000 1.23%
MIA 6500 1.52% 7226 1.37% 6600 1.49% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 8400 1.18% 4000 2.44% 7500 1.32% 7500 1.32% 8000 1.23%
JAX 9000 1.10% 6067 1.62% 6600 1.49% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 9000 1.10% 6600 1.49% 8000 1.23% 8000 1.23% 8000 1.23%
BUF 16000 0.62% 11550 0.86% 10000 0.99% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 17500 0.57% 7500 1.32% 20000 0.50% 15000 0.66% 8000 1.23%
CHI 16500 0.60% 19456 0.51% 17500 0.57% 10000 0.99% 8000 1.23% 20000 0.50% 10000 0.99% 15000 0.66% 20000 0.50% 10000 0.99%
LAR 17000 0.58% 17466 0.57% 17500 0.57% 10000 0.99% 8000 1.23% 25000 0.40% 12500 0.79% 20000 0.50% 12500 0.79% 8000 1.23%
CLE 24000 0.41% 26649 0.37% 25000 0.40% 15000 0.66% 10000 0.99% 30000 0.33% 20000 0.50% 25000 0.40% 30000 0.33% 30000 0.33%
SF 18500 0.54% 43190 0.23% 30000 0.33% 13000 0.76% 10000 0.99% 40000 0.25% 10000 0.99% 25000 0.40% 35000 0.28% 20000 0.50%
NYJ 35000 0.28% 27603 0.36% 50000 0.20% 13000 0.76% 8000 1.23% 40000 0.25% 20000 0.50% 32500 0.31% 35000 0.28% 50000 0.20%

*Odds accurate as of 8/17/17

Hold Percentages

  • Sportsbook: 12.44%
  • Heritage: 13.98%
  • Pinnacle: 15.58%
  • Bookmaker: 19.88%
  • Paddy Power: 23.28%
  • Greek: 24.54%
  • BetOnline: 25.45%
  • Westgate: 25.57%
  • BetUS: 26.27%
  • MyBookie: 36.51%

Sportsbook has experienced payout delays recently, but they do have the best hold percentage on the market. However, they could be posting enticing odds to attract new customers.

The three books following them are the three sharpest books in the sample, all of which have great reputations according to sportsbook review sites. Westgate comes in on the higher side, but that should be expected for a Vegas book as they have been known to have holds pushing 50%.

MyBookie…I love the prop bets this book puts out, but golly gee whiz their Super Bowl odds suck. Oddly enough, they have the best payout for the Patriots, but the worst odds for many of the other teams.

Keep in mind that these are the hold percentages for these particular Super Bowl odds, not for every future the book posts. Last year, the books came in a similar order, but the percentages were relatively different. We did a similar exercise for the World Series this year, which yielded very interesting results comparatively speaking. Heritage, nearly the best book for each of the past two Super Bowls, was tied for dead last at 30.69%! These clearly vary from year-to-year and sport-to-sport. I am guessing many of these percentages are worse than last year’s due to the Patriots’ historically great odds.

If you have a particular team in mind, here is where you can find the best payout for each. Quick! Go get those Jets at 500/1 at BetOnline before the line moves!

Best Odds Per team

  • Arizona: +4200 (Bookmaker & Heritage)
  • Atlanta: +1500 (Greek)
  • Baltimore: +7200 (Bookmaker)
  • Buffalo: +20000 (Sportsbook)
  • Carolina: +3250 (Heritage)
  • Chicago: +20000 (Heritage & Greek)
  • Cincinnati: +7500 (Bookmaker)
  • Cleveland: +30000 (Heritage, Greek, & Westgate)
  • Dallas: +1700 (Sportsbook)
  • Denver: +4000 (Sportsbook & Westgate)
  • Detroit: +7000 (Sportsbook)
  • Green Bay: +1100 (Sportsbook)
  • Houston: +4000 (Westgate)
  • Indianapolis: +6500 (Bookmaker & Sportsbook)
  • Jacksonville: +9000 (Bookmaker & Heritage)
  • Kansas City: +3200 (Sportsbook)
  • LA Chargers: +660 (BetUS)
  • LA Rams: +25000 (Heritage)
  • Miami: +8400 (Heritage)
  • Minnesota: +4500 (Sportsbook)
  • New England: +400 (MyBookie & Paddy Power)
  • New Orleans: +5700 (Heritage)
  • NY Giants: +2641 (Pinnacle)
  • NY Jets: +50000 (BetOnline & Westgate)
  • Oakland: +1800 (BetUS & Paddy Power)
  • Philadelphia: +5000 (Heritage)
  • Pittsburgh: +1300 (Sportsbook)
  • San Francisco: +43190 (Pinnacle)
  • Seattle: +1000 (Heritage, Paddy Power, Sportsbook, Greek, & Westgate)
  • Tampa Bay: +4311 (Pinnacle)
  • Tennessee: +5000 (BetUS)
  • Washington: +8000 (Westgate)

Best Team Odds per Book

  • Heritage: 10
  • Sportsbook: 10
  • Westgate: 6
  • Bookmaker: 5
  • Greek: 4
  • BetUS: 3
  • Paddy Power: 3
  • Pinnacle: 3
  • BetUS: 2
  • BetOnline: 1

These generally line up with the hold percentage rankings, but there are some differences. Despite having one of the best holds, Pinnacle only offers three of the best payouts — one of which is the 49ers. Meanwhile, Westgate has one of the worst holds but several of the best payouts. Seahawks fans heading to Vegas might want to head over to the Superbook and put down some money.

If you’re wondering how preseason odds have translated into Super Bowl champions, here are the preseason odds for each team dating back to Super Bowl 36.

Super Bowl Team Preseason Odds
51 New England Patriots +600
50 Denver Broncos +900
49 New England Patriots +650
48 Seattle Seahawks +800
47 Baltimore Ravens +1800
46 New York Giants +2200
45 Green Bay Packers +1100
44 New Orleans Saints +2000
43 Pittsburgh Steelers +1800
42 New York Giants +3000
41 Indianapolis Colts +600
40 Pittsburgh Steelers +1200
39 New England Patriots +600
38 New England Patriots +1500
37 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200
36 New England Patriots +6000

Historical Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com

Will the Patriots win another Super Bowl and make this post a waste of time? I wouldn’t really mind since I’m a Pats fan…

If you’ve missed our first three summer series articles, make sure you check them out.

The Difference Between Sports Bettors and Sports Investors

Who are the Best and Worst Backup Quarterbacks in the League?

Turf, Temps, and Tornadoes: What to Look for When Betting NFL Totals

Follow us on Twitter @SportsInsights so you stay up to date on all of our blogs.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

2017 SEC Football Betting Preview

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama has dominated the SEC for the past three years, winning three straight conference championships and representing the conference in the College Football Playoff in each of its three years of existence. It should come as no surprise that Nick Saban’s squad is expected to continue their dominance in 2017.

The Tide are coming off a difficult National Championship defeat to Clemson, but should not have a problem returning to the Natty this year. They’re returning nearly every offensive starter, including three potential Heisman candidates. Their expectations are so high in fact, that 5Dimes has released some preseason odds that have never existed for a college football team. Bama is +2000 to win each game this season by 10+ points, and +2000 to go undefeated in both of the next two seasons. You can see all of their ridiculous props here.

As for the rest of the conference, it’s essentially a battle for second according to oddsmakers.

2017 Futures

Team Win SEC
(8/15 5Dimes)
Make/Miss CFP
(8/15 5Dimes)
Win National Championship
(8/12 5Dimes)
Win Total
(8/15 5Dimes)
Alabama -153 -195/+155 +245 11 (u-120)
Auburn +685 +500/-900 +2000 8.5 (o-155)
LSU +800 +450/-750 +2000 9 (o-115)
Florida +1000 +850/-1750 +4000 8 (o-160)
Georgia +1000 +825/-1725 +3500 8.5 (o-135)
Tennessee +2600 +1500/-4500 +10300 7.5 (o-115)
Arkansas +7500 +7000/-30000 +50000 7 (u-140)
Texas A&M +5500 +3700/-14100 +22500 7
Kentucky +12000 N/A +150000 7 (u-150)
Mississippi State +12000 +8000/-35000 +60000 5.5 (o-145)
South Carolina +13000 +13500/-67500 +95000 5.5 (o-125)
Missouri +25000 N/A +120000 6.5 (u-140)
Vanderbilt +25000 N/A +150000 6 (u-175)
Ole Miss N/A* N/A* N/A* 5.5 (u-105)

*self-imposed one-year postseason ban

Behind Alabama’s -153 conference odds (the only team in the country with minus odds), Auburn (+685) has been given the best shot, followed by LSU at +800. Interestingly, all three mentioned teams are in the SEC West. Obviously, the West has been the superior division in recent history, but in general, when a conference has such a juggernaut as Bama, the next team or two in terms of conference odds tends to come from the other division (see Wisconsin in the Big Ten, Washington in the Pac-12). The reason being that the winner of each division gets to play for the championship, so it’s more doable to win one game vs. the juggernaut than to outperform them for an entire season.

For those now thinking that there’s inherently some value on an SEC East team like Florida or Georgia (both at +1000), I should warn you that even after Florida won the East last year (with +1500 preseason odds to win the SEC), the closing line of the SEC Championship was +1100/-2100.

Back to the West. After bringing in quarterback Jarrett Stidham (sophomore transfer from Baylor), Auburn is potentially strong enough to compete with any team in the country, including Alabama (the Tigers will be hosting the Iron Bowl this year). They’ll be returning 15 starters, including running back Kamryn Pettway, and have a defense that allowed the fifth fewest points per game in 2016 (15.6). The question mark therefore is on Stidham, and with a week 2 matchup at Clemson, it won’t take long to get an idea of what kind of team this is going to be in 2017.

LSU is another team with high expectations heading into 2017. They’ve got plenty talent at running back despite losing Leonard Fournette to the NFL Draft. Derrius Guice was extremely impressive in 2016 averaging 7.6 yards per carry, and figures to be in the Heisman conversation this season. The defense was just behind Auburn’s in 2016, allowing 16.4 points per game, sixth in the country. Unfortunately, they’re losing half their starters, and have road matchups with Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee. It would surprise me to see them ultimately making a run at a conference championship, but it is college football. Crazier things have happened.

As mentioned, Florida and Georgia both have +1000 odds to win the conference. Georgia’s struggling offense will benefit from the healthy return of running back Nick Chubb, but there’s still questions at receiver and offensive line. QB Jacob Eason is entering his second year as starter, which is usually a sign for overall team improvement, and their 16th ranked defense is retunrning 10 starters.

Last year’s East champs, the Gators, are still waiting on a starting quarterback to emerge from their ongoing QB battle. Earlier this offseason it looked as if Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire was going to be their guy, but redshirt freshman Felipe Franks has made his own case, leaving head coach Jim McElwain still up in the air on a decision.

If you’re looking to take one of these teams to win the SEC, I’d take a lesson from last year and wait to see how things play out. As we saw in 2016, there isn’t much value gained from placing a preseason bet on an East team to take the conference from Bama.

2016 Results

Team ATS Moneyline Units (Record) Over Record
Auburn 9-3 -0.9 (6-4) 4-8
Alabama 9-4 1.6 (12-0) 6-7
Vanderbilt 7-5 7.5 (6-6) 5-6
Kentucky 7-5 18.5 (6-5) 7-5
LSU 5-6 -2.5 (6-4) 2-7-2
South Carolina 5-6-1 3.2 (5-6)
Tennessee 5-7 -2.3 (7-4) 8-4
Mississippi State 5-7 -0.5 (5-7) 7-5
Georgia 5-7 -0.1 (6-5) 5-7
Missouri 5-7 -4.8 (3-8) 6-6
Arkansas 5-7 +4.2 (6-5) 6-6
Florida 4-7-1 1.5 (6-4) 4-8
Texas A&M 4-8 -1.6 (6-4) 4-7
Ole Miss 4-8 -4.4 (4-7) 7-4

Alabama and Auburn aside, it was a tough year for spread bettors in the SEC. Ten of the 14 teams in the conference ended the season with below .500 ATS records. The SEC’s reputation likely drew more casual bettors to their teams, and created value on the opposing side. In fact, simply fading SEC teams on the moneyline rewarded bettors with 13.6 units in 2016-17.

As for Kentucky, however, moneyline bettors saw the balance on their betting accounts skyrocket, thanks in large part to a huge road upset at Louisville (closed over +1700), as well as big wins at Missouri and vs. Mississippt State. The Wildcats were the most profitable moneyline team in the Power 5, ending the year up 18.5 units.

As we’ve seen with some of the other dominant teams of 2016 (Clemson and Ohio State), there’s little to no value betting a team like Alabama on the moneyline. Despite an undefeated regular season, the Tide rewarded their moneyline bettors with only 1.6 units on the season, meaning just one loss would’ve put them in the red.

2017-18 Heisman Odds (8/15 BetOnline):

  • Derrius Guice (RB, LSU) +1200, Bo Scarbrough (RB, Alabama) +1400, Jalen Hurts (QB, Alabama) +1600, Jarrett Stidham (QB, Auburn) +2000, Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia) +2500, Kamryn Pettway (RB, Auburn) +2800, Nick Fitzgerald (QB, Mississippi State) +5000, Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama) +8000

Alabama running backs are no stranger to Heisman trophies, with Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry taking home the award in 2009 and 2015, respectively. Perhaps that’s a sign of the strength of the Bama running system, which would lead us to look no further than Bo Scarbrough at +1400. I’m personally not a fan of preseason Heisman betting, as we’ve often seen the winner come out of nowhere once the season starts, but I’m surprised that more bettors have not bet on Scarbrough based on the above logic and driven his odds closer to +1000. Of course there’s still a few weeks to go before the start of the season, so maybe we’ll start to see some movement.

Interested in our other conference previews? ACCBig Ten, Big 12, Pac-12

Getting ready to bet on college football games? Try our pro membership, with which you will receive best bet picks for all major sports, bet signals, public betting and dollar percentages, and more. Follow us on Twitter @SportsInsights to make sure you are up to date on blog posts, injuries, and sports betting information.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More

All sportsbooks are not the same.

All Sportsbooks Are Not the Same.

All sportsbooks are not the same.
All sportsbooks are not the same. Where you place your bets can be just as important as who you bet on. There are a number of ways to analyze a sportsbook and although it may come as a surprise to some readers, bonuses are actually the least important factor to consider when choosing an online sportsbook. They come with huge strings attached and offer little true value (for instance having to roll your money over 5 times before being able to make a withdrawal). The most important factor to consider when evaluating a sportsbook is the type of bettor to whom the sportsbook caters. This answer will affect your bottom line more than anything else.

The following article examines the various types of sportsbooks and the sports bettors they cater towards. It was developed to help sports bettors find the correct internet sportsbook for their betting style. We have broken down the sportsbooks into three major categories: Loose Lines, Sharp Lines and Reduced Juice (RJ) Lines.

Why does it matter?
Every bettor has a different style and philosophy, and only by utilizing multiple sportsbooks can you ensure that you consistently find the best line. For example, an uninformed (or square) bettor is more prone to bet on the favorite regardless of the point spread. At some sportsbooks, this will force bookmakers to adjust their lines to encourage action on the other side. While this can deter some bettors from betting the favorite, it creates an excellent opportunity to bet the underdog at an artificially inflated price.

This opportunity is great for bettors who want to take the underdog, but what if you think there is value on the favorite? Sharper sportsbooks will not adjust their lines based on square bettors, and do not change their lines lightly. For that reason, typically sharp sportsbooks offer the best favorite lines.

The third type of sportsbook is known as reduced juice because they do not utilize the traditional dimeline (i.e. -110). This is great for everyday bettors as you can win at a lower rate and still turn a profit. Some books will actually give bettors the option between deposit bonuses or reduced juice and many are tempted by what they see as free money. The truth is that most beginning bettors will take the deposit bonus, but will see their account balance hit zero before they actually qualify for their bonus. Additionally, this bonus is a one-time payment, whereas bettors who select reduced juice will continue reaping the benefits for years to come. For patient players who are getting into sports betting for the long haul, a reduced juice sportsbook is ideal for everyday betting.

Sportsbook Categories
1. Loose Lines – Sportsbooks that are considered loose will deviate from the ‘real’ line. In some cases this is because they’re taking heavy favorite action and will shade their lines accordingly. However it could also be they just don’t follow the crowd.

2. Reduced Juice – A sportsbook that offers reduced juice; that is something other than the standard -110 juice on sports.

3. Sharp Lines – A sharp sportsbook deals its own line and caters to sharp players. They will not move on air, they don’t follow the crowd and they take huge bets.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone

Read More