Super Bowl 52 Odds and Theoretical Hold Percentages

When you want to make a bet at a sportsbook on a team to win the Super Bowl, there are a couple of things that you should know. First is whether or not you are getting the best possible payout that you can. Having multiple sportsbook accounts is something that we always recommend to bettors because by taking a slightly better line, you build up substantial units in the long run.

However, a second thing you should be aware of is a sportsbook’s theoretical hold. When betting on spreads, you can easily see that books are taking money through the juice — usually -110 on a standard spread or total. This helps ensure that they win money in the long run and trust me, they do.

NV sports books win record $14.9 million on baseball in June off record handle of $207.1 million, per state’s Gaming Control Board #RJNow

— Todd Dewey (@tdewey33) July 27, 2017

With futures, it’s tougher to tell just how much the books are taking. In the real world, there is a 100% chance that one team will win the Super Bowl. In the gambling world, a sportsbook’s Super Bowl futures and corresponding implied probabilities suggest that there is more than a 100% chance. The higher the percentage, the higher the hold and the lower the payouts.

To find a sportsbook’s theoretical hold percentage, you must first look at the odds for each team and convert them into implied probability by using this formula: (100/(100+odds). For example, a team with +500 odds would have a 16.67% implied probability (100/(100+500). Once we have the IP for every team, we can add them all together to get X. Then to get the hold, we finally finish up with the math by doing: 1-(1/X).

Oh, that’s right, people hate math! That’s why I have gone ahead and done it for you like the nice feller that I am. You can venmo me part of your winnings as a thank you.

For this exercise, we will be looking at nine different offshore sportsbooks (varying from sharp to square) and one Vegas book, the Westgate Superbook. I would have liked to include 5Dimes and Bovada in the sample, but 5Dimes has no odds for the Cowboys and Bovada doesn’t have any Super Bowl odds posted currently.

TEAM BOOKMKR IP PINNACLE IP BETONLINE IP BetUS IP MyBookie IP HERITAGE IP PADDYPOWER IP SPORTSBOOK IP GREEK IP WESTGATE IP
NE 303 24.81% 391 20.37% 275 26.67% 350 22.22% 400 20.00% 365 21.51% 400 20.00% 320 23.81% 300 25.00% 250 28.57%
GB 983 9.23% 951 9.51% 950 9.52% 900 10.00% 800 11.11% 950 9.52% 1000 9.09% 1100 8.33% 800 11.11% 800 11.11%
SEA 935 9.66% 966 9.38% 950 9.52% 900 10.00% 750 11.76% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09% 1000 9.09%
PIT 845 10.58% 1013 8.98% 1100 8.33% 1000 9.09% 900 10.00% 1050 8.70% 1100 8.33% 1300 7.14% 800 11.11% 1200 7.69%
DAL 1400 6.67% 1095 8.37% 1100 8.33% 1200 7.69% 750 11.76% 1150 8.00% 1400 6.67% 1700 5.56% 1200 7.69% 1200 7.69%
ATL 1022 8.91% 1200 7.69% 1100 8.33% 1300 7.14% 1100 8.33% 1400 6.67% 1200 7.69% 1300 7.14% 1500 6.25% 1200 7.69%
OAK 1451 6.45% 1752 5.40% 1200 7.69% 1800 5.26% 1500 6.25% 1675 5.63% 1800 5.26% 1600 5.88% 1200 7.69% 800 11.11%
NYG 1750 5.41% 2641 3.65% 1400 6.67% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 1700 5.56% 1800 5.26% 1800 5.26%
KC 2352 4.08% 2661 3.62% 2500 3.85% 1800 5.26% 1500 6.25% 2500 3.85% 2000 4.76% 3200 3.03% 2500 3.85% 3000 3.23%
HOU 2403 4.00% 2125 4.49% 2000 4.76% 2000 4.76% 1800 5.26% 2850 3.39% 3300 2.94% 3000 3.23% 2800 3.45% 4000 2.44%
CAR 3004 3.22% 3090 3.13% 2800 3.45% 2400 4.00% 1800 5.26% 3250 2.99% 2500 3.85% 3000 3.23% 1800 5.26% 2500 3.85%
DEN 3707 2.63% 3192 3.04% 2800 3.45% 1600 5.88% 1300 7.14% 3325 2.92% 2000 4.76% 4000 2.44% 3000 3.23% 4000 2.44%
IND 6500 1.52% 4568 2.14% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 3500 2.78% 3300 2.94% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96% 5000 1.96%
MIN 3799 2.56% 3749 2.60% 3600 2.70% 2400 4.00% 2000 4.76% 3525 2.76% 2500 3.85% 4500 2.17% 3500 2.78% 4000 2.44%
TB 3813 2.56% 4311 2.27% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 3800 2.56% 3300 2.94% 3000 3.23% 2500 3.85% 4000 2.44%
ARI 4200 2.33% 3476 2.80% 3300 2.94% 2400 4.00% 1600 5.88% 4200 2.33% 2500 3.85% 3500 2.78% 3000 3.23% 2500 3.85%
TEN 3756 2.59% 3384 2.87% 3300 2.94% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 4500 2.17% 3300 2.94% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3000 3.23%
BAL 7200 1.37% 4575 2.14% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 2800 3.45% 4700 2.08% 3300 2.94% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44%
PHI 3619 2.69% 4682 2.09% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44%
LAC 5600 1.75% 4782 2.05% 4500 2.17% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 5350 1.83% 4000 2.44% 5000 1.96% 6500 1.52% 5000 1.96%
NO 5500 1.79% 6254 1.57% 4000 2.44% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 5700 1.72% 4000 2.44% 5000 1.96% 4500 2.17% 5000 1.96%
DET 6300 1.56% 5754 1.71% 5000 1.96% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 7000 1.41% 6000 1.64% 6000 1.64%
CIN 7500 1.32% 6678 1.48% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 3300 2.94% 6525 1.51% 3300 2.94% 6000 1.64% 4000 2.44% 6000 1.64%
WAS 6700 1.47% 8121 1.22% 6600 1.49% 5000 1.96% 4000 2.44% 7500 1.32% 5000 1.96% 7000 1.41% 5000 1.96% 8000 1.23%
MIA 6500 1.52% 7226 1.37% 6600 1.49% 4500 2.17% 4000 2.44% 8400 1.18% 4000 2.44% 7500 1.32% 7500 1.32% 8000 1.23%
JAX 9000 1.10% 6067 1.62% 6600 1.49% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 9000 1.10% 6600 1.49% 8000 1.23% 8000 1.23% 8000 1.23%
BUF 16000 0.62% 11550 0.86% 10000 0.99% 6600 1.49% 5500 1.79% 17500 0.57% 7500 1.32% 20000 0.50% 15000 0.66% 8000 1.23%
CHI 16500 0.60% 19456 0.51% 17500 0.57% 10000 0.99% 8000 1.23% 20000 0.50% 10000 0.99% 15000 0.66% 20000 0.50% 10000 0.99%
LAR 17000 0.58% 17466 0.57% 17500 0.57% 10000 0.99% 8000 1.23% 25000 0.40% 12500 0.79% 20000 0.50% 12500 0.79% 8000 1.23%
CLE 24000 0.41% 26649 0.37% 25000 0.40% 15000 0.66% 10000 0.99% 30000 0.33% 20000 0.50% 25000 0.40% 30000 0.33% 30000 0.33%
SF 18500 0.54% 43190 0.23% 30000 0.33% 13000 0.76% 10000 0.99% 40000 0.25% 10000 0.99% 25000 0.40% 35000 0.28% 20000 0.50%
NYJ 35000 0.28% 27603 0.36% 50000 0.20% 13000 0.76% 8000 1.23% 40000 0.25% 20000 0.50% 32500 0.31% 35000 0.28% 50000 0.20%

*Odds accurate as of 8/17/17

Hold Percentages

  • Sportsbook: 12.44%
  • Heritage: 13.98%
  • Pinnacle: 15.58%
  • Bookmaker: 19.88%
  • Paddy Power: 23.28%
  • Greek: 24.54%
  • BetOnline: 25.45%
  • Westgate: 25.57%
  • BetUS: 26.27%
  • MyBookie: 36.51%

Sportsbook has experienced payout delays recently, but they do have the best hold percentage on the market. However, they could be posting enticing odds to attract new customers.

The three books following them are the three sharpest books in the sample, all of which have great reputations according to sportsbook review sites. Westgate comes in on the higher side, but that should be expected for a Vegas book as they have been known to have holds pushing 50%.

MyBookie…I love the prop bets this book puts out, but golly gee whiz their Super Bowl odds suck. Oddly enough, they have the best payout for the Patriots, but the worst odds for many of the other teams.

Keep in mind that these are the hold percentages for these particular Super Bowl odds, not for every future the book posts. Last year, the books came in a similar order, but the percentages were relatively different. We did a similar exercise for the World Series this year, which yielded very interesting results comparatively speaking. Heritage, nearly the best book for each of the past two Super Bowls, was tied for dead last at 30.69%! These clearly vary from year-to-year and sport-to-sport. I am guessing many of these percentages are worse than last year’s due to the Patriots’ historically great odds.

If you have a particular team in mind, here is where you can find the best payout for each. Quick! Go get those Jets at 500/1 at BetOnline before the line moves!

Best Odds Per team

  • Arizona: +4200 (Bookmaker & Heritage)
  • Atlanta: +1500 (Greek)
  • Baltimore: +7200 (Bookmaker)
  • Buffalo: +20000 (Sportsbook)
  • Carolina: +3250 (Heritage)
  • Chicago: +20000 (Heritage & Greek)
  • Cincinnati: +7500 (Bookmaker)
  • Cleveland: +30000 (Heritage, Greek, & Westgate)
  • Dallas: +1700 (Sportsbook)
  • Denver: +4000 (Sportsbook & Westgate)
  • Detroit: +7000 (Sportsbook)
  • Green Bay: +1100 (Sportsbook)
  • Houston: +4000 (Westgate)
  • Indianapolis: +6500 (Bookmaker & Sportsbook)
  • Jacksonville: +9000 (Bookmaker & Heritage)
  • Kansas City: +3200 (Sportsbook)
  • LA Chargers: +660 (BetUS)
  • LA Rams: +25000 (Heritage)
  • Miami: +8400 (Heritage)
  • Minnesota: +4500 (Sportsbook)
  • New England: +400 (MyBookie & Paddy Power)
  • New Orleans: +5700 (Heritage)
  • NY Giants: +2641 (Pinnacle)
  • NY Jets: +50000 (BetOnline & Westgate)
  • Oakland: +1800 (BetUS & Paddy Power)
  • Philadelphia: +5000 (Heritage)
  • Pittsburgh: +1300 (Sportsbook)
  • San Francisco: +43190 (Pinnacle)
  • Seattle: +1000 (Heritage, Paddy Power, Sportsbook, Greek, & Westgate)
  • Tampa Bay: +4311 (Pinnacle)
  • Tennessee: +5000 (BetUS)
  • Washington: +8000 (Westgate)

Best Team Odds per Book

  • Heritage: 10
  • Sportsbook: 10
  • Westgate: 6
  • Bookmaker: 5
  • Greek: 4
  • BetUS: 3
  • Paddy Power: 3
  • Pinnacle: 3
  • BetUS: 2
  • BetOnline: 1

These generally line up with the hold percentage rankings, but there are some differences. Despite having one of the best holds, Pinnacle only offers three of the best payouts — one of which is the 49ers. Meanwhile, Westgate has one of the worst holds but several of the best payouts. Seahawks fans heading to Vegas might want to head over to the Superbook and put down some money.

If you’re wondering how preseason odds have translated into Super Bowl champions, here are the preseason odds for each team dating back to Super Bowl 36.

Super Bowl Team Preseason Odds
51 New England Patriots +600
50 Denver Broncos +900
49 New England Patriots +650
48 Seattle Seahawks +800
47 Baltimore Ravens +1800
46 New York Giants +2200
45 Green Bay Packers +1100
44 New Orleans Saints +2000
43 Pittsburgh Steelers +1800
42 New York Giants +3000
41 Indianapolis Colts +600
40 Pittsburgh Steelers +1200
39 New England Patriots +600
38 New England Patriots +1500
37 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200
36 New England Patriots +6000

Historical Odds via SportsOddsHistory.com

Will the Patriots win another Super Bowl and make this post a waste of time? I wouldn’t really mind since I’m a Pats fan…

If you’ve missed our first three summer series articles, make sure you check them out.

The Difference Between Sports Bettors and Sports Investors

Who are the Best and Worst Backup Quarterbacks in the League?

Turf, Temps, and Tornadoes: What to Look for When Betting NFL Totals

Follow us on Twitter @SportsInsights so you stay up to date on all of our blogs.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterEmail this to someone