Home Run Derby Betting Odds

SAN DIEGO, CA – JULY 11: Giancarlo Stanton of the Miami Marlins competes during the T-Mobile Home Run Derby at PETCO Park on July 11, 2016 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Marlins Park is set to become a launch pad for Major League Baseball’s 2017 match up of best sluggers when it hosts the Home Run Derby this coming Monday. For bettors and sports fans alike, the derby is a beacon of light that offers a reprieve from the monotony of the dog days of summer and this year’s edition is no exception.

The electrifying event will be headlined by two rookie sensations as well as last year’s champ and hometown hero Giancarlo Stanton. He and Aaron Judge are the favorites to win the derby with everyone else on the list sitting well back of the two bombers.

Here’s a brief analysis of all the competitors and what their odds are to win the 2017 Home Run Derby

Smashing the previous record for home runs at the derby, Stanton went a little overkill last year by launching 62 balls over the fence at Petco Park to take the title. Every time he connected with a ball the crowd audibly gasped at the sheer power exuded by the slugger and with this year’s event taking place in front of Stanton’s home crowd, expect the atmosphere to be that much better.

The Marlins right-fielder had the 20 hardest-hit balls of the night in 2016 but should expect a stiffer challenge in that department from the most powerful hitter in baseball.

Odds to Win 2017 Home Runs Average HR Distance
+165 23 410 Feet

As the big-league leader in home runs, Aaron Judge is expected to do big things in his first derby. The six-foot-seven-inch right-fielder has converted close to 40 percent of his fly balls into home runs in his first full season as a big-leaguer and is on pace to destroy Mark McGwire’s record for HRs as a rookie.

Judge seems like the perfect fit for this competition. His enormous frame leads to easy power and with a .331 average through 290 at-bats this season, he can just flat out hit the baseball.

If Judge and Stanton meet in the final of the derby like they’re favored to do, duck and cover – these two monsters will be hitting some serious bombs.

Odds to Win 2017 Home Runs Average HR Distance
+175 29 415 Feet

The NL’s counterpunch to Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger is writing a story similar to the one being not so delicately penned by the Bronx Bomber. Four years Judge’s junior, the Dodgers left-fielder broke Gary Sanchez’s record by becoming the fastest player in major-league history to reach 21 home runs.

Bellinger is lined up to meet Judge in the semifinals of what is gearing up to be an explosive must-watch event.

Odds to Win 2017 Home Runs Average HR Distance
+900 24 403 Feet

This Dominican powerhouse is a pure stinky slugger. He’s had trouble with strikeouts during his three-year career but with a .277 average in 78 games in 2017, he’s working around the K’s and should be the dark horse in this year’s derby. Sano has unbelievable pull power when he makes solid contact so expect him to put on a show in this format.

Odds to Win 2017 Home Runs Average HR Distance
+1000 20 414 Feet

Possibly the best hitter in the competition, Moustakas might not have the tools to keep up with the likes of Judge, Stanton, Bellinger and Sano in this one. The Royal has the shortest average home run distance of all the contestants and his +1400 odds don’t inspire confidence either.

Odds to Win 2017 Home Runs Average HR Distance
+1400 25 398 Feet

Did I just say someone with +1400 odds couldn’t win this thing? I take it back. Gary Sanchez has been tearing the leather off the baseball since he lit the league on fire last season with 20 home runs in his first 71 games and he doesn’t just hit them out, he sends them packing with no return ticket.

Although he’s hit just 13 this year in limited action, the Yankees catcher has what it takes to challenge the top guys. He and Kendrys Morales are the only two players in baseball with a minimum of 10 home runs to have their shots average a distance of over 421 feet.

Odds to Win 2017 Home Runs Average HR Distance
+1400 13 422 Feet

Another hometown guy, Bour might be another one who’s outmatched in this contest. He faces the unenviable task of taking on Aaron Judge in the first round of what would be a massive upset if he were able to move on. What does the Magic 8 Ball say? Outcome not likely.

Odds to Win 2017 Home Runs Average HR Distance
+1400 19 398 Feet

Although his stats are a little padded by Coors Field, Blackmon could win this by sheer will. The Rockie is one of the most competitive and serious men in baseball and I doubt he’s going to have any fun at this event if he doesn’t win the whole damn thing. He will, however, probably have to beat Bellinger, Judge and Stanton if he’s to realize his Home Run Derby aspirations – +2000 is about right.

Odds to Win 2017 Home Runs Average HR Distance
+2000 19 411 Feet

Odds as of July 6 BetOnline
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) +165
Aaron Judge (NYY) +175
Cody Bellinger (LAD) +900
Miguel Sano (MIN) +1000
Mike Moustakas (KC) +1400
Gary Sanchez (NYY) +1400
Justin Bour (MIA) +1400
Charlie Blackmon (COL) +2000

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2017 Home Run Derby Odds

With the field of eight set, odds have been released for next week’s home run derby in Miami. The defending champion, Giancarlo Stanton, will look to defend his crown at his home field, while the second coming of Babe Ruth, Aaron Judge, will try to knock him off the throne. Stanton and Judge are the one and two seeds, respectively, so they wouldn’t face off unless they both reach the finals.

The @TMobile #HRDerby bracket is out.

Get ready for some POWER. pic.twitter.com/RQJ64bX70w

— MLB (@MLB) July 5, 2017

If you haven’t watched in recent years, note that the derby is no longer the classic 10-out format that it used to be. It is now a timed event with bonus time awarded for long home runs. This has led to more swings and more dingers, which should seemingly favor a more physically fit player.

Player July 7
July 6
(Paddy Power)
Giancarlo Stanton +165 +120
Aaron Judge +195 +163
Miguel Sano +800 +1400
Cody Bellinger +900 +900
Mike Moustakas +1400 +1400
Justin Bour +1400 +1600
Gary Sanchez +1400 +2000
Charlie Blackmon +2000 +1200

It should come as no surprise that Stanton and Judge are at the top of the list, but the gap between them and the rest of the field is astonishing. These two have been known to bash mammoth homers, and should get some additional time that their opponents won’t have.

Setting a good pace is also important because if these guys over-exert themselves in the early rounds, they can get tired out by the finals. Most of you will remember Josh Hamilton’s performance in the home run derby in old Yankee Stadium, but people forget that he didn’t even win that year. Despite hitting 28 homers in the first round, he lost 5-3 in the finals to Justin Morneau.

Given the unpredictability of the event, I would advise that you take anyone/everyone other than Stanton and Judge. All of them can hit home runs and the odds should be much tighter than they are. This reminds me of the Slam Dunk Contest in which Aaron Gordon was -150, Derrick Jones Jr. was +115, and Glenn Robinson III was +1200. Of course, Robinson took home the title. While that event is a little more fluky, both should be considered more of a gimmick than an actual event where the best man or team generally wins.

Here are odds on 1st round matchups and prop bets:

Stanton -380 vs. Sanchez +260
Judge -305 vs. Bour +225
Bellinger -160 vs. Blackmon +120
Sano -135 vs. Moustakas -105

Longest home run: Over 499.5 feet (-350), Under 499.5 feet (+250)
Most home runs: Over 46.5 (+150), Under 46.5 (-190)

Feel free to comment with any thoughts or contact us with any questions by emailing help@sportsinsights.com.

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