The 2017 Confederations Cup Final will feature Germany vs. Chile on Sunday afternoon at 2pm ET, a rematch of their 1-1 draw from the group stage. Germany opened as the favorites to win the tourney at +205 while Chile were available at +320. The current odds to lift the trophy are Germany -123/Chile +112. Neither team has lost during this year’s tournament, but Germany remain the slight favorite in the final on the 3-way moneyline (odds and betting %’s via Bookmaker):
Germany +145 (65% of bets)
Chile +200 (27% of bets)
Draw +230 (8% of bets)
Over/Under 2.5 (u-130)
When these teams met in the group stage, the odds were much different and Chile were the slight favorites at +163 (Germany +182, Draw +250). Not much has changed over that time, so it’s a little surprising to see the markets clearly favoring Germany now. Chile are more experienced and haven’t yet played to their potential this tournament, which could be good or bad news depending how you look at it. I choose to look on the optimistic side due to their leadership and top-level talent, and expect Chile to play their best game of the tourney on Sunday. With a +320 futures ticket riding on Chile to win the title, I’m already invested in the final.
In the semifinal matches, I took both draws (big surprise, right?) and was able to profit +1.36 units. Draws have been lucrative this entire tournament, earning bettors +6.2 units if you bet the draw in all 14 games. Betting on the ‘underdog’ has not fared well at all, winning just 1 of 14 games, while favorites have won 8 times in 14 games.
In the final, public bettors continue to overlook the draw line and instead are taking a side. The large majority of early bets are on Germany (65%) although their win probability is ~41%. There hasn’t been any line movement at Bookmaker since opening on Thursday night, another good indication that the market is fine taking early public bets on Germany. Once again, I’m leaning toward the draw in this final at +230 odds and hoping Chile can win in extra time or penalty kicks.