2017 Confederations Cup Final Preview: Germany vs. Chile

The 2017 Confederations Cup Final will feature Germany vs. Chile on Sunday afternoon at 2pm ET, a rematch of their 1-1 draw from the group stage. Germany opened as the favorites to win the tourney at +205 while Chile were available at +320. The current odds to lift the trophy are Germany -123/Chile +112. Neither team has lost during this year’s tournament, but Germany remain the slight favorite in the final on the 3-way moneyline (odds and betting %’s via Bookmaker):

Germany +145 (65% of bets)
Chile +200 (27% of bets)
Draw +230 (8% of bets)
Over/Under 2.5 (u-130)

When these teams met in the group stage, the odds were much different and Chile were the slight favorites at +163 (Germany +182, Draw +250). Not much has changed over that time, so it’s a little surprising to see the markets clearly favoring Germany now. Chile are more experienced and haven’t yet played to their potential this tournament, which could be good or bad news depending how you look at it. I choose to look on the optimistic side due to their leadership and top-level talent, and expect Chile to play their best game of the tourney on Sunday. With a +320 futures ticket riding on Chile to win the title, I’m already invested in the final.

In the semifinal matches, I took both draws (big surprise, right?) and was able to profit +1.36 units. Draws have been lucrative this entire tournament, earning bettors +6.2 units if you bet the draw in all 14 games. Betting on the ‘underdog’ has not fared well at all, winning just 1 of 14 games, while favorites have won 8 times in 14 games.

In the final, public bettors continue to overlook the draw line and instead are taking a side. The large majority of early bets are on Germany (65%) although their win probability is ~41%. There hasn’t been any line movement at Bookmaker since opening on Thursday night, another good indication that the market is fine taking early public bets on Germany. Once again, I’m leaning toward the draw in this final at +230 odds and hoping Chile can win in extra time or penalty kicks.

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2017 Confederations Cup Semifinal Preview

The 2017 Confederations Cup semifinals begin on Wednesday with Portugal taking on Chile. The other semifinal will take place Thursday as Germany play Mexico. Both matchups are highly anticipated as these are clearly the four best teams, and I’m still pulling for a Mexico/Chile final.

Here are the lines and early betting percentages for each semifinal matchup. Reminder that these are 3-way moneylines which include the draw, so bets are graded on 90 minutes of action.

Chile +214 (29%)
Portugal +144 (62%)
Draw +236 (9%)

Mexico +261 (23%)
Germany +110 (65%)
Draw +269 (12%)

It’s been a rough tournament for underdogs, as they’ve won just 1 of 12 games so far (Mexico +184 vs. Russia). Favorites have won 7 games but down nearly 2.5 units if you bet every single one. The draw has been very profitable, with 4 wins in 12 games, good for +4.84 units.

For the semifinal matchups, the public is heavy on both favorites (Portugal and Germany) but there’s been little movement so far. This means that the market is willing to take a majority of early bets on the favorites without feeling the need to move their lines. This also indicates that bettors will continue to take the favorites at a good price, but I think there’s value elsewhere.

If you’ve read any of my past previews on the EPL, MLS, World Cup, Copa America or Euros, you know that I’m privy toward betting the draw. This is because the public often overlooks the draw, especially in elimination games, which adds value to the draw line. Since I’m already invested on both Chile (+320) and Mexico (+1100) to win the tournament, I’ll likely be hedging a small amount on both semifinal draws. As always, be sure to shop around the market to get the best line possible, especially for these 3-way moneylines which will differ at every sportsbook.

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