Will Davante Adams regress from his 12 touchdowns in 2016, or will he continue to climb the rankings? (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)
Jarvis Landry: ADP 40
Jarvis Landry turned in yet another fantastic year in PPR scoring in 2016 with 94 receptions for 1,134 yards. But what has become a trend for Landry is that he only hauled in four touchdowns. In fact, he had more drops (five) than he did trips to the end-zone last season. Over his last three seasons, Landry has a combined 13 TDs, making him less and less attractive to owners in standard formats. His three-year average of 96 catches, on the other hand, makes him a top target in PPR formats. His percentage of targets caught (77.%) and run after catch (6.7) numbers are among the league’s best, showing that he is one of the most sure-handed players in the game.
Coming into the 2017 season, however, there seems to be an emphasis by the coaching staff to become more balanced on offense. That means that they will be looking to get Jay Ajayi even more involved this season. So, what does this mean for Landry? Well, it could mean that his target share will dip, as well as the catches and yardage overall. And for a player that relies on yards after the catch, that will really put a dent into his Fantasy potential. Don’t get me wrong, this passing attack will continue to go through Landry as the WR1, but the dip in production hurts his appeal as a PPR standout while also making him a player that you can overlook in standard formats. I currently have him projected for 87 catches and 1,013 yards with only five TDs. That would make Landry a solid WR2 in PPR formats, but could put him as a fringe WR2/3 in standard leagues. Landry could be a prime candidate for regression in 2017.
Davante Adams: ADP 42
The 2016 Davante Adams is what many owners thought that they were getting early in 2015 drafts. The hype was so big that it felt like the pressure was too big for him to hold. After being a massive flop, Adams came into last season fresh,and rebounded in a big way with 75 grabs for 997 yards and a jaw-dropping 12 TDs. He was constantly targeted in the red zone by Aaron Rodgers, and unlike in 2015, he was actually converting. And to think, he could have been even better. His nine drops were tied for fourth in the league with several of them being in or around the end zone. All of his counting stats such as yards per reception (13.3) and RAC (5.4) were all middle of the road, showing just how dependent he was on the touchdown for his Fantasy potential.
As we enter into the 2017 season, Adams is solidly the Packers WR2 ahead of the fading Randall Cobb. That means his target share should increase in what will be a contract year for the receiver. We all know what that generally means for Fantasy production. This Packers offense should again be very pass-reliant with the lack of a true running back to stand out (I don’t believe that Ty Montgomery is the answer). Even with the extra mouths to feed in the offense with Jordy Nelson, Cobb, and the newly signed Martellus Bennett, there will be plenty of opportunity for Adams to show his worth. He should again be a highly sought-after piece in standard formats, where his ADP will be higher, but expect Adams to have a better season in PPR leagues than he did last year. I currently have him projected for 81 catches for 1,001 yards and eight TDs. Adams will be drafted as a WR2, but has all the potential to put up WR1 numbers in 2017.
While both of these players will be great producers for Fantasy in 2017, if I am presented with the option on either player, I am going with Davante Adams every time. I see Landry taking a step back this year, and without the touchdown production, it makes him a dangerous player to own in any format. Adams, on the other hand, should see an increase in catches and yards while keeping the touchdown potential. Grabbing a possible WR1 for a WR2 price? I am in on that all day long. Give me Davante Adams for 2017.